000
AGXX40 KNHC 221840
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EST TUE DEC 22 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.
 
...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE NE OF
AREA INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ANTICYCLONIC SE TO S WIND FLOW
PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA IS ENHANCING S WINDS IN THE W GULF. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES A SECOND FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND STALL AFTER IT REACHES
THE TEXAS COAST WED. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK N AS A
WARM FRONT THU AND FRI. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER
NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY WED. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRES E-NE OF
THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH SUN.

...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W... 

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NE OF THE AREA IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
AND A PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR 09N76W IS CREATING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION...SUPPORTING STRONG TO
NEAR GALE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA...GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE
S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND NEAR GALE
TO GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. ASCAT DATA AT 1450
UTC SHOWED 35 KT WINDS NEAR 12.5N75W AND A LARGE AREA OF 30 KT
WINDS FROM 11N-14N. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GALES EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO SEVERAL MORE DAYS N OF COLOMBIA INTO NEXT WEEK.
GFS MODEL ALSO SHOWS BRIEF PULSES OF 33-35 KT MINIMAL GALES IN
THE GULF OF VENEZUELA MAINLY IN THE EVENING BETWEEN 21Z-03Z.
THIS ROUGHLY COINCIDES WITH LOWEST WINDS N OF THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA BETWEEN 18Z-00Z.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. SCATTEROMETER
DATA SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG EASTERLY WINDS S OF THE HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 36N44W...WHICH SUPPORTS SEAS TO 9-11 FT E OF THE
BAHAMAS. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FIRST HIGH SHIFTING EASTWARD
INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH WED...THEN A SECOND HIGH BECOMING
ESTABLISHED NEAR 32N60W ON THU...AND REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY
AND MAINTAINING SLP AROUND 1031 MB THROUGH SAT. THE LARGE SCALE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
EXPECT FRESH-STRONG TRADE WINDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
.AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W
INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN...
     GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU. 
     GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT. 

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
     NONE.

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.