000 AGXX40 KNHC 191900 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST SAT DEC 19 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SE OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ALABAMA PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION. FRESH-STRONG NE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN GULF...WITH BUOY AND SHIP DATA SHOWING MAX SEAS TO 10-11 FT BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT THROUGH SUN AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND WEAKENS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. SE RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN WATERS SUN AND SPREAD EASTWARD TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE BASIN BY MON. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NORTHERN GULF TUE BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND DISSIPATE BY EARLY WED...NOT MAKING IT VERY FAR OFFSHORE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS DEPICT FRESH-STRONG WINDS OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER WESTERN WATERS...AND MODERATE-FRESH WINDS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE 8- 11 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-8 FT IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND 7-10 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. A COLD FRONT IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL DRIFT SE AND DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW WINDS AND SEAS TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THU. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE NORTHERN COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. MODEL DATA SHOWS MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS AT ALL TIME PERIODS EXCEPT BRIEFLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z...WILL LEAVE GALE WARNING IN PLACE EVEN DURING LULL PERIODS AS REASONABLE PRECAUTION FOR MARINERS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS THEN MOVE E OF THE AREA SUN. ASCAT DATA SHOWS FRESH-STRONG NE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER NW PART OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE 8-10 FT NW OF THE FRONT AND 4-6 FT AHEAD OF IT. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A BROAD FAIRLY INTENSE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ALONG 35N NEXT WEEK...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA SUN THROUGH THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT INTO MON. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MON NIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.