000 AGXX40 KNHC 171826 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 126 PM EST THU DEC 17 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO WILL REACH FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT...FROM TAMPA BAY TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI MORNING... THEN EXIT THE SE GULF FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...REACHING GALE FORCE S OF 20N W OF 94W FRI MORNING. MODEL GUIDANCE STILL FORECASTING FRESH TO STRONG NLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONGEST WINDS OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ...WHERE A GALE WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT S OF 21N W OF 94W FRI MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 10-14 FT. WINDS AND SEAS IN THE WESTERN GULF WILL DIMINISH SAT AND SUN AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS EAST. STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS SAT NIGHT AND SUN WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA INTO EARLY SUN. SEAS WILL BE 8-10 FT...WITH MAX SEAS TO 9 FT LINGERING LONGER IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH SUN EVENING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA IN THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLC AND LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA WILL APPROACH GALE FORCE EACH NIGHT FROM SAT THROUGH MON. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE ALONG WITH 3-5 FT SEAS W OF 77W...AND 4-7 FT SEAS E OF 68W...INCLUDING THE TROPICAL N ATLC. NE TO E SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT...EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE SAT NIGHT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND DIFFUSE THROUGH SUN NIGHT. MAX SEAS TO 9-11 FT ARE EXPECTED IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SAT NIGHT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE FRONT. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT E OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N64W ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 17N73W IS ENHANCING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC INCLUDING THE MONA PASSAGE. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES E AND WEAKENS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND OF GFS/WW3 GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FCST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. SE TO S ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL CROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND MOVE OFF THE COAST FRI MORNING...REACH FROM 31N68W TO WESTERN CUBA SAT MORNING...STALL FROM 27N65W TO EASTERN CUBA SUN MORNING...THEN BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS THE AREA MON. FRESH TO STRONG S WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF 29N TONIGHT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN NW PORTION SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS SHIFTS EASTWARD. 7-10 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED NE AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST HAZARDOUS IN AND NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS COUNTER CURRENT FLOW TO NE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN SEAS OF 8-9 FT THROUGH LATE SUN. THE HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT WELL TO THE E BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH RIDGING DOMINATING THE BASIN. EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH RETURN FLOW N OF 22N AND FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E-SE WINDS S OF 22N FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING FRI. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.