000 AGXX40 KNHC 151915 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EST TUE DEC 15 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FRONT THAT STALLED OUT THIS MORNING FROM NEAR 29N83W TO 26N87W TO 25N94W IS IN THE PROCESS OF RETREATING BACK TO THE NW-N AS A WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL LIFT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE BASIN BY WED MORNING. GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE BASIN THROUGH WED MORNING ALONG WITH 2-4 FT SEAS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST WED MORNING. THAT FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH OFFSHORE DURING THE MORNING HOURS... REACHING FROM NEAR 29N92W TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO WED EVENING... FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO THU MORNING... FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI MORNING...PUSHING SE OF THE BASIN FRI EVENING. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...EVEN STRONGER IN THE SW GULF OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ WHERE GALE FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE LATEST GEFS 34 KT PROBABILITIES ARE 0 PERCENT...HOWEVER THE LATEST SREF 34 KT PROBABILITIES ARE UP TO 65 PERCENT FRI MORNING...AND THE SREF INDICATES THAT THE GALE EVENT MAY EVEN LINGER THROUGH FRI AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS TO UP 12 FT...POSSIBLY 14 FT IF THE TAFB-NWPS VERIFIES. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...SHIFTING TO A POSITION OVER THE CAROLINAS BY SUN MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WINDS TO DECREASE IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF WHILE TURNING ANTICYCLONIC...WHILE FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THE SE GULF... STRONGEST IN AND NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE APPROACH AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SEAS WILL BE UP TO 10-13 FT IN THIS SAME AREA...HIGHEST NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SW TO THE WATERS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND HAITI...AND S-SW FROM THERE TO 14N BETWEEN 72W-78W. A 1018 MB HIGH CENTER IS LOCATED N OF THE AREA IN THE ATLC NEAR 28N62W. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND 1008 MB LOW PRES NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA NEAR CARTAGENA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND RESULTANT 5-7 FT SEAS. OTHERWISE MAINLY MODERATE E-SE FLOW PREVAILS ALONG WITH 3-5 FT SEAS...EXCEPT S OF 10N WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH WED. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD SE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WED NIGHT INTO THU WHICH WILL STRENGTHEN THE PRES GRADIENT ALLOWING FOR TRADES IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW FRI...SLIPPING SE OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT WHICH WILL QUICKLY BUILD SEAS TO UP TO 12 FT NEAR THE CHANNEL LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NW HONDURAS SAT MORNING...THEN FROM NEAR CABO CRUZ CUBA TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER SAT EVENING... STALLING FROM NEAR N CENTRAL HAITI TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER BY SUN EVENING. THE FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD IN ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT... AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT THE PRES GRADIENT WILL BE RELATIVELY TIGHT WITH FRESH TO STRONG TRADES...NEAR GALE FORCE NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA...ACROSS THE BASIN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU...INCREASING TO FRESH THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS...BEFORE DIMINISHING BACK TO MAINLY MODERATE BY SUN. LONG PERIOD NE SWELLS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WATERS THU NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH 7-10 FT SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES AT 1018 MB IS LOCATED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 28N62W. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS ATTEMPTING TO SNEAK INTO THE FAR NW CORNER. MAINLY MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT FRESH SW WINDS N OF 30N E OF 77W WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHTER. SEAS ARE RUNNING 3-5 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 6 FT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE. THE HIGH WILL SLIDE SE AND BECOME STRETCHED OUT DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WHILE THE WEAK FRONT WILL MAINLY STALL N OF 30N...EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION WHICH WILL CLIP THE WATERS N OF 27N E OF 70W WED. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E-SE FLOW WILL PREVAIL BY THU MORNING...INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE NW PORTION THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THAT NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW PART BY SUNRISE FRI...EXTENDING FROM 31N74W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FRI EVENING... THEN FROM 29N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SAT EVENING...THEN FROM 24N65W TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA SUN EVENING. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 27N/28N AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH IN THE NW PORTION BY SUN MORNING AS HIGH PRES BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL TURN MORE NE-E SUN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH SEAS OF 7-11 FT EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE WATERS. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST HAZARDOUS NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AS WELL AS THE APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.