000 AGXX40 KNHC 120803 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 303 AM EST SAT DEC 12 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH LATEST RUN OF GFS AND ECMWF. A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE SOUTHERN COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA WITH WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO THE CENTRAL BASIN. SOUTHEASTERLY LIGHT TO FRESH WINDS ARE ACROSS THE GULF...STRONGEST BEING W OF 94W AS INDICATED BY SURFACE OBS. SEAS OVER MOST OF THE GULF CURRENTLY LESS THAN 5 FT...EXCEPT 5-6 FT IN THE NW PORTIONS AND INTO TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. AS FOR THE FORECAST...THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEVELOPING A BROAD AREA OF RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFT E INTO THE ATLC THROUGH SUNDAY. FRESH TO STRONG SE-S WINDS ACROSS W HALF OF BASIN THIS MORNING SPREADS EAST EARLY SUN WITH SEAS BUILDING 8-9 FT SAT AND 8-12 FT SUN OVER THE NW AND NORTH CENTRAL GULF. MODELS ALSO AGREE IN MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 12Z-15Z SUN...EXTENDING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY 00Z MON. ISOLATED AREAS OF 25-30 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN 60 NM W OF THE FRONT ON SUN OVER GMZ011-013. CONFIDENCE REMAINS FOR WINDS BELOW NON-WARNING CRITERIA. FRONT RAPIDLY WEAKENS MON AS IT SLIDES SWD AND EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE MON. FRONT STALLS EARLY TUE THEN LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONT AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY THROUGH 27N87W TO 25N94W BY LATE TUE...AND ALONG THE GULF COAST BY WED AFTERNOON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SLATED TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED...HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY THE NWP MODELS IN REGARDS TO TIMING. HOWEVER ALL AGREE THAT THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE STRONGER THAN THE FIRST FRONT AS UPPER LEVEL GREATLY AMPLIFIES MID TO LATE-WEEK. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH LATEST RUN OF GFS AND ECMWF. SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW AND PORTIONS OF NORTH-CENTRAL CARIB CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 23N69W TO NW COASTAL WATERS OF HAITI NEAR 19N73W. A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA NE TO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...THUS INCREASING THE PRESSURE N OF THE AREA. THIS SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE GRADIENT SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS OVER THE GULF OF VENEZUELA AND ALONG COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA. MODELS SUGGEST THE HIGH WILL STRENGHTEN WHILE MOVING E THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS WILL FURTHER INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE SW CARIBBEAN...THUS INCREASING THE AREAL OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE RIDGE SHIFTS SE LATE SUN INTO MON AND TRADES DIMINISH. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD UP TO 10 FT DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL BLENDED WITH LATEST RUN OF GFS AND ECMWF. DEEP LAYERED LOW DRAGS A COLD FRONT SW ALONG 30N47W TO 25N63W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. THE LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOWED GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 55W. 1019 MB HIGH BEHIND FRONT NEAR 30N73W WILL SHIFT E AS LOW CONTINUES TO SWEEPS RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH SAT THEN BECOME PART OF RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NEARLY E-W ALONG 31/32N LATE SAT THEN GRADUALLY REALIGNING NW TO SE SUN. GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND ADVANCING INVERTED TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANT ALLOWS STRONG PRES GRADIENT TO DEVELOP OVER THE BAHAMAS SAT AND SUN...WITH WINDS TO 30 KT EXPECTED IN ELONGATED BAND FROM ABOUT 68W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO EXTREME SE FLORIDA...WHERE SEAS WILL BUILD 8-10 FT E OF BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO THEN LIFT NWD AND WEAKEN SUN AS RIDGE TO N REALIGNS. FRESH E TO SE WINDS MOVE NWD OVER AMZ111 INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE SUN WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE SSW ON MON AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.