000 AGXX40 KNHC 041933 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 233 PM EST FRI DEC 4 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF STALLED COLD FRONT ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF GULF MAY HAVE BEEN MEANDERING ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS AND STRAITS THIS MORNING AS A NW WIND SHIFT WAS SEEN ACROSS THE KEYS EARLY...ONLY TO VEER AROUND TO THE SE NOW. A LOW ALONG THE FRONT IS JUST N OF THE NW BAHAMAS AND EARLIER RAIN CONTAMINATED WSAT PASS SHOWED A POSSIBLE LOW JUST W OF DRY TORTUGAS. OBS...STLT...AND RAP ANAL SUGGEST FRONT HAS DRIFTED OR MEANDERED ACROSS EXTREME S FL AND EXTENDS SW INTO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WHERE SFC WIND FLOW IS NOW MORE NLY BEHIND FRONT W OF 85W PER RECENT SCAT PASSES. 00Z RUN OF ECMWF DEPICTED FRONT REACHING FARTHER SE THAN GFS...AND VERY CLOSE TO THIS ANALYSIS...AND HAVE GONE WITH STRONG ECMWF BIAS FOR THIS PACKAGE. ACROSS THE SW GULF...OBS IN THE VERACRUZ AREA STILL INDICATE NLY WINDS 25-30 KT AND SEAS LIKELY STILL 10-11 FT...BUT CONDITIONS THERE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THIS AFTERNOON. FRONT TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH SAT BEFORE BEGINNING TO DRIFT W TO NW AS WARM FRONT SAT NIGHT AND SUN. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN STRONG HIGH ACROSS OHIO VALLEY AND FRONT TO MAINTAIN STRONG N TO NE WINDS ACROSS WATERS E OF 90W THROUGH EARLY SUN BEFORE NW DRIFTING FRONT FOCUSES TIGHT GRADIENT FARTHER N BUT STILL E OF 90W. LARGE AREA OF 25 KT WINDS ACROSS NE PORTIONS COULDYIELD SPOTS TO 30 KT NEXT 36 HOURS. ANOTHER WEAK AND REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS SUNDAY...AND SWEEP E-SE ACROSS THE GULF COAST AND ACT TO RESTRENGTHEN PRES GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT W OF 90W SUN EVENING THROUGH MON...THEN FORCE MERGED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES BACK TO THE SE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFF VERACRUZ MONDAY. THE LATEST 12Z GFS IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH BOTH 00Z AND 12Z ECMWF AND SHOWS WINDS 30-35 KT ON MON AT 30M BUT ONLY 30 KT AT 10M. LASTED WIND BLEND PEAKING ONLY AT 30 KT FOR THE TIME BEING. SREF PROBS FOR GALES PEAK AT 63% THERE TUE 18Z...AND THUS MUST RESPECT POTENTIAL. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND GULF APPROACH TO CHANNEL TODAY...WHILE 2 LOW PRES CENTERS LOOK TO HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE TROFFING AND PERSISTENT CNVTN ACROSS SW PORTIONS...ONE IN GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N86.5W AND A SECOND SMALL CIRCULATION NEAR 18N83W. LOW ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS AND NW TO N FLOW BEHIND IT MAY ALLOW FOR FRONT TO JUMP OR MERGE INTO TROFFING THERE AND MOVE INTO FAR NW PORTIONS OF CARIB. EXPECT THE TROFFING AND ACTIVE CNVTN TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH SAT NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING WWD AND INTO YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SUN. ELSEWHERE STRONG ATLC RIDGE IS MAINTAINING STRONG TRADE WINDS OFF NE COLOMBIA...WITH A LARGER AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES COVERING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ALTHOUGH THE ATLC RIDGE WILL RETREAT TO THE E AND WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND INTO NW ATLC BY SUN TO MAINTAIN A MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN WITH NOCTURNAL MAX WIND PEAKING AROUND 30 KT OFF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUN. FRESH TRADES AND EASTERLY SWELL IS MAINTAINING SEAS 7 TO 9 FT ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...WITH THIS SWELL BLEEDING THROUGH THE CARIB PASSAGES...AND THIS PATTERN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUN NIGHT...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH LATE MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: ECMWF THROUGH DAY 3 THEN GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 31N62W TO LOW PRES NEAR 28N78W THEN STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS PALM BEACH AREA THEN SW ACROSS EXTREME S FL AND DIVING SSW INTO NE COAST OF YUCATAN. STRONG JET AND A S/W MOVING N OF AREA CONTINUE TO PRODUCE STRATOFORM PRECIP AND ELEVATED CNVTN NW OF FRONT...AND CLUSTERS OF DEEP CNVTN IN MOIST SE LLVL FLOW ACROSS NW BAHAMAS...STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY. RECENT 15Z ASCAT PASSES SHOWED A 120 NM WIDE BAND OF SOLID 25 KT WINDS N OF FRONT BETWEEN ROUGHLY 70-80W..WITH SOME 30 TO 40 KT VECTORS. THIS OCCURRING WITHIN AREA OF EARLIER DEEP CNVTN AND BUMPED UP WIND FORECAST TO 30 KT AND 12 FT THERE...BUT DID NOT BUY THE GALE WINDS FOR NOW. SEAS RUNNING 8-10 FT THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THIS BAND OF STRONG NE WINDS...REACHING 7-9 FT ALONG THE COAST PER BUOY OBS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...12Z GFS RUN NOW MORE IN LINE WITH ECMWF...SHOWING THE NE PART OF FRONT MOVING A BIT FARTHER SE TONIGHT WHILE REMAINDER MEANDERS IN PLACE...AND SMALL ZONES OF 30 KT WINDS AND POTENTIAL FOR GALES JUST N OF FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT...MOST LIKELY ACROSS N SEMICIRCLE OF THIS LOW...AS IT SHIFTS ENE ALONG THE FRONT PER GUIDANCE. THIS STALLED BOUNDARY AND STRONG PRES GRADIENT TO THE N WILL MAINTAIN THESE VERY ROUGH CONDITIONS N OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SUN BEFORE UPPER TROUGH MOVES OFF MID ATLC COAST THEN AND KICKS ANY LOW CENTER ALONG FRONT OUT TO THE NE...AND ALSO DRAGS FRONT WITH IT...WASHING OUT TRAILING PORTIONS TO THE SW. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH E TO E-SE TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS SE PORTIONS THROUGH MON WITH ELY TRADEWIND SWELL KEEPING SEAS 6-7 FT...AND UP TO 8 FT OFFSHORE OF LEEWARDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.