000 AGXX40 KNHC 011800 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EST TUE DEC 1 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 21N97W WILL GET A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR LATE TONIGHT MERGES WITH THE FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS OF THE U.S. THE MERGED FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO VERACRUZ MEXICO LATE WED... FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU NIGHT...THEN STALL FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI THROUGH SAT. WINDS TO GALE FORCE ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO W OF THE FRONT THU THROUGH FRI AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT. GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ...STARTING ALONG TAMAULIPAS LATE WED NIGHT...THEN SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THU NIGHT. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE SHOWING GALES OFF TAMAULIPAS...BUT THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR GALES OR AT A MINIMUM FREQUENT 35 KT GUSTS GIVEN THE CONTRAST IN AIRMASS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC AND A BROAD TROUGH IN THE WEST- CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER JAMAICA...WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SE AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PERSISTENT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED N OF 17N TO INCLUDE HAITI...EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA...UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT E OF THE UPPER LOW. THE UPPER LOW WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AND RE- ORIENT ITSELF FROM HISPANIOLA TO COSTA RICA BY WED...ALLOWING THE SURFACE TROUGH TO WEAKEN AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD WESTWARD...SHIFTING STRONGER TRADE WINDS FURTHER WEST INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL PULSE TO 8-10 FT THROUGH FRI. A FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THU WILL STALL ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROUGH ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS WILL DRIFT WESTWARD THROUGH WED THEN DISSIPATE...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA WED EVENING. ACTIVE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL ALSO MOVE W AND DIMINISH...AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WEAKENS. THE COLD FRONT PUSHING OFF FLORIDA WILL REACH FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA THU...THEN STALL FROM BERMUDA TO THE FLORIDA KEYS FRI THROUGH SAT. STRONG NE WINDS TO 25-30 KT...AND BUILDING SEAS TO 11-12 FT ARE EXPECTED NW OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND. MODEL GUIDANCE IN BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING STRENGTH OF WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING WED NIGHT INTO THU. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU INTO THU NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.