000 AGXX40 KNHC 281817 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 117 PM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. 1026 MB HIGH PRES IS SITUATED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 34N84W WITH BROAD RIDGING EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF. MODERATE RETURN FLOW IS SUPPORTED AROUND THIS HIGH WHILE SEAS ARE MAINLY 4-7 FT IN LINGERING NE-E SWELL...EXCEPT 2-4 FT IN THE NE GULF. A COLD FRONT IS IN THE PROCESS OF STALLING ALONG THE TEXAS COAST WHERE IT IS FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW AND 2-4 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN BY SUN AFTERNOON. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE MORNING. THE FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO GET A REINFORCING PUSH BY LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH WINDS INCREASING TO FRESH BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI BY WED MORNING...THEN FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO 26N96W TO 19N95W BY THU MORNING. THE LATEST GFS FORECASTS WINDS INCREASING TO NEAR GALE FORCE W OF THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BY EARLY THU...AS DOES OTHER GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN IMPRESSIVE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N OF THE AREA IN THE ATLC ALONG 70W INTO THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR HISPANIOLA. THIS TROUGH HAS RESULTED IN A RATHER WEAK PRES PATTERN ACROSS THE BASIN WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES NOTED. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL INCREASE IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS ATLC HIGH PRES WELL NE OF THE AREA BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR TRADES TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE CENTRAL PORTION. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...EXPANDING IN COVERAGE BY MID-WEEK AS THE PRES GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. MEANWHILE...LARGE N-NE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES FROM HISPANIOLA TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SEAS 6-7 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG NE WINDS PERSIST INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BETWEEN 1026 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO HISPANIOLA. SEAS TO 14 FT ARE REPORTED AT BUOY 41047 NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY SW. SEAS WILL MORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDE NE OF THE BAHAMAS WITH PERSISTENT NE SWELL CONTINUING INTO SUN. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NE BY LATE MON AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH BERMUDA MON THEN STALLING AND WEAKENING E OF THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED N OF THE AREA TUE INTO WED ALLOWING MODERATE E TO SE WINDS TO PERSIST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES BY LATE WED OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE WED. THAT FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N71W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THU MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.