000 AGXX40 KNHC 280741 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 241 AM EST SAT NOV 28 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND THROUGH MON THEN ECMWF BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH MON THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. FRESH TO STRONG E FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF CURRENTLY...SOUTH OF 1030 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. SEAS ARE 4 TO 6 FT IN THE MORE FETCH LIMITED NE GULF...BUT ARE STILL UP TO AT LEAST 7 FT IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE 20 TO 25 KT WINDS CONTINUE TO FLOW AGAINST THE FLORIDA CURRENT. FARTHER WEST...WINDS ARE SLIGHTLY LESS BUT SEAS ARE UP TO 8 FT IN EAST SWELL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS APPROACHING THE NW GULF OF MEXICO BY LATE TONIGHT...THEN STALL THROUGH MONDAY. THE GFS SHOWS THE FRONT BECOMING REINFORCED BY EARLY TUE AND STARTING TO PUSH EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF. THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW A SIMILAR SCENARIO BUT FAVOR A LATER PUSH OF COLDER AIR ON EARLY WED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FAVORS THIS LATER PUSH WITH 20 TO 25 KT NW FLOW OVER THE NW GULF EARLY WED SPREADING SOUTHWARD TO OFF THE TAMAULIPAS COAST BY LATE WED BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE FAR SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG RIDGE N OF THE AREA THAT HAS BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH NE WINDS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS WEAKENING THIS MORNING...ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE REGION TO SLOWLY DIMINISH. A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE COLOMBIA THROUGH HISPANIOLA TO BERMUDA IS THE DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE THIS WEEKEND. A MODERATE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL RESULT IN FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE ABC ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE... LARGE N-NE NORTHERLY SWELL WILL CROSS THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES FROM HISPANIOLA TO LEEWARD ISLANDS WITH SEAS 6-7 FT THROUGH SAT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. STRONG NE WINDS PERSIST INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BETWEEN 1030 MB HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS AND A TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BERMUDA TO HISPANIOLA. SEAS TO 16 FT ARE REPORTED AT BUOY 41047 NE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. DIVERGENCE ALOFT ON THE SE SIDE OF AN UPPER LOW SITUATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W. THE STRONG NE WINDS WILL DIMINISH GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE TODAY AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS. SEAS WILL MORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDE NE OF THE BAHAMAS WITH PERSISTENT NE SWELL CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS BROAD TROUGH BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED AS DOMINANT SYNOPTIC FEATURE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AS A RESULT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NE BY LATE MON AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH BERMUDA MON THEN STALLING AND WEAKENING EAST OF THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING BECOMES ESTABLISHED N OF THE AREA TUE INTO WED ALLOWING MODERATE E TO SE WINDS TO PERSIST. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES BY LATE WED OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST LATE WED. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY EARLIER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT BUT OTHERWISE LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL OUTPUT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.