000
AGXX40 KNHC 250746
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
246 AM EST WED NOV 25 2015

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN
SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND
64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS.
 
...GULF OF MEXICO...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED USED FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR
OBSERVATIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND DOMINATES THE REGION. A
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS DEVELOPING OVER THE SW N ATLC AND
EASTERN GULF RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE W GULF AND MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW SHIFTING
OVER THE E GULF. THESE MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD TO W
TO 90W THROUGH TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT INLAND OVER SE TEXAS FRI
NIGHT WILL STALL BEFORE MOVING INTO THE NW GULF SUN AFTERNOON.
   
...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED USED FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR
OBSERVATIONS. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO BELIZE AND
WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS WILL PERSIST
N AND NW OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH TODAY. HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE
AREA WILL STRENGTHEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLC
KEEPING THE FRESH TO STRONG WINDS NE WINDS N OF 18N W OF 77W
THROUGH FRI. THIS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL ALSO SUPPORT FRESH TO
STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT WILL
PULSE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THROUGH FRI MORNING. GFS GLOBAL
MODEL INDICATES THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT BECOMING A TROUGH NE OF
HISPANIOLA WILL DRIFT NW THU THROUGH SUN. THIS WILL DISRUPT THE
RIDGE AND ALLOW WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO DIMINISH
FRI AND SAT.

...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...

MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL
FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED USED FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR
OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 25N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A
TROUGH THU NIGHT. STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
STRENGTHENED NE WINDS GENERATING STRONG TO NEAR GALE W OF THE
FRONT/TROUGH THROUGH FRI MORNING AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS E. THIS
WILL WEAKEN THE PRES GRADIENT FRI THROUGH SUN ALLOWING THE TROUGH
TO DRIFT NW THROUGH SUN. THE LATEST GFS MODEL RUN INDICATES NEAR
GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE BOUNDARY IN NORTHERN WATERS
BETWEEN 62W-67W TODAY THROUGH THU NIGHT. THE LATEST RUNS OF NWPS
AND MWW3 WAVE MODELS INDICATED SIGNIFICANT SEA HEIGHTS OVER THE
SAME AREA BUILDING TO 18 TO 19 FT TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT.
THEREFORE A GALE WARNING WILL BE ISSUED FOR TODAY FROM THU
EVENING.

$$

.WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE
COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE:

.GULF OF MEXICO...
     NONE.

.CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W...
     NONE.

.SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS...
.AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...
     GALE WARNING TODAY.
     GALE WARNING THU INTO THU NIGHT. 

$$

*FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF

NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE
NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT:
HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT:
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE

$$

.FORECASTER PAW. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.