000 AGXX40 KNHC 231800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 100 PM EST MON NOV 23 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI BUILDING BEHIND COLD FRONT S OF THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES TO THE CAROLINAS THROUGH WED. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND EASTERN GULF WED AND THU...AND FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED E OF 90W WED THROUGH THU NIGHT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE TEXAS COAST SAT WILL INDUCE STRONGER SE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE NW GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EXTEND FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BELIZE TONIGHT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM EASTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS TUE. HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA WILL STRENGTHEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLC...AND SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI MORNING. GFS GLOBAL MODEL INDICATES A LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 32N65W FRI NIGHT...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO HISPANIOLA. THIS WILL DISRUPT THE RIDGE AND ALLOW WINDS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO DIMINISH FRI AND SAT. LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SWEEP SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 65W...AND AFFECT WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT FROM 30N70W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO NORTHERN CUBA WILL EXTEND FROM 30N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA TONIGHT THEN BECOME STATIONARY FROM 27N65W TO EASTERN CUBA TUE. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS MODERATE 1035 MB HIGH PRESSURE OVER W VA TUE NIGHT STRENGTHENING TO 1047 MB AS IT MOVES NE TO THE COAST OF MAINE THROUGH WED NIGHT. THIS LARGE AREA OF STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL ALLOW NE WINDS TO INTENSIFY ACROSS THE REGION TUE THROUGH FRI. EXPECT 20-25 KT FRESH NE WINDS WITHIN 250 NM NW OF FRONT TUE MORNING TO STRENGTHEN...AND AREA OF HIGH WINDS TO EXPAND...ENCOMPASSING NEARLY ENTIRE REGION NW OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 12-16 FT OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA W OF THE BAHAMAS WED THROUGH FRI. A SMALL AREA OF MINIMAL GALES COULD DEVELOP IN NORTHERN PART OF ZONE AMZ115...FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W...THU NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS WEEKEND AS THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS. GFS GLOBAL MODEL INDICATES A LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR 32N65W FRI NIGHT AND MOVE NE THROUGH SAT NIGHT... WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD TO NEAR HISPANIOLA. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BECOME DIFFUSE THIS WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER MUNDELL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.