000 AGXX40 KNHC 151944 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 244 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM SW FLORIDA NEAR 25N81W TO 24N84W. A TOPOGRAPHICALLY INDUCED SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF 25N. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING ALONG EASTERN MEXICO AND THE TROUGH OFFSHORE SUPPORT NW WIND FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT S OF 20N W OF 95W WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER S CAROLINA SUPPORTS EASTERLY FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KT ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. THE STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E TODAY AND MON ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE SE ON MON. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NW HALF OF THE GULF BY EARLY TUE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE BASIN TUE AFTERNOON...SEAS INCREASING TO 8 FT. BY TUE NIGHT NW TO N WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY REACHING GALE FORCE WED AFTERNOON IN THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SEAS TO 9 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW...MAINLY OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 82W WITH SEAS TO 11 FT. THE STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE MON THEN DIMINISH ON TUE AS THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA WEAKENS AHEAD OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LOOKING AHEAD...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE REMAINS THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN NORTH OF PANAMA...PREVAILING NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WEAKENING INTO A SURFACE TROUGH. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 30N55W TO 25N76W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO NEAR HOMESTEAD FLORIDA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS ARE 20 KT MAINLY S OF 28N W OF 70W...EXCEPT ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 25 KT. THE RIDGE WEAKENS LATE MON THROUGH EARLY TUE...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 25 KT NEAR HISPANIOLA AND MOSTLY BELOW 20 KT ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND VEER TO THE ESE AT 20-25 KT BY LATE TUE OVER AREAS W OF 67W. THE WINDS EXPAND EASTWARD AND COVER ALL AREAS N OF 25N WED MORNING WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 9 FT OVER A BROAD AREA NE OF THE BAHAMA BANK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SE COAST THU MORNING. E-SE WIND FLOW 20 KT OR LESS WILL DOMINATE AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WITH SEAS REACHING TO 9 FT IN NE TO E SWELL. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WATCH WED. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.