000 AGXX40 KNHC 100834 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 334 AM EST TUE NOV 10 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING SLOWLY E-SE ACROSS E PORTIONS OF GULF...STATIONARY CENTRAL SECTIONS...AND BEGINNING TO DRIFT W ACROSS THE SW OVERNIGHT. SFC LOW LOOKS TO HAVE SHIFTED N-NE AND INLAND ACROSS N FLORIDA NEAR KLCQ WITH FRONT SW TO NEAR 25N87W THEN W-SW PASSING N OF 42055 THEN S TO JUST E OF VERACRUZ AND INLAND ALONG 95.5W. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT...WITH MAX WINDS OFF OF VERACRUZ W OF FRONT NOW 14-16 KT PER LOCAL OBS...WHERE SEAS ARE PROBABLY STILL 6 FT...WHILE SEAS ARE 4 FT ACROSS BIG BEND AREA IN N TO NW WINDS. SW PORTION OF FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT W AND NW TODAY AND SLOWLY WASH OUT NEXT 48 HRS...WHILE NE PORTION MOVES SE...REACHING MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY SHORTLY AFTER 12Z...REACHING CAPE CANAVERAL TO NEAR SANIBEL ISLAND TO NEAR 23N90W BY 00Z TONIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO LAY MORE ENE TO WSW ACROSS EXTREME S FL AND MEANDER NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD S THROUGH LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY AND YIELD LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS BASIN THEN SHIFT E TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW THEN SETTING UP W PORTIONS FOR WED. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH NEXT WEAK FRONT MOVING OFF TEXAS COAST BEFORE LATE WED NIGHT AND MOVING SE...REACHING PENSACOLA TO UPPER MEXICAN COAST BY 00Z FRI THEN STALLING W PORTIONS NEAR 25N97W ENE ACROSS GULF TO S BIG BEND AREA. MODELS SUGGEST SLY WINDS SPILLING DOWN MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS BEHIND THE STALLED BOUNDARY W PORTIONS ON FRI WITH THAT PORTION OF FRONT MOVING TO AT LEAST TAMPICO BY 18Z. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS. STRING OF TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH FIRST ACROSS E GULF OF HONDURAS INVOF 86W...NEXT ACROSS S CENTRAL CARIB ALONG 71-72W...AND THIRD RELOCATED TO 56-57W S OF 13N ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. UPPER BLOCKING PATTERN PREVAILING LAST SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC AND CARIB WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN BY 48 HOURS AS HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH SWEEPS ACROSS E HALF OF U.S AND INTO W ATLC AND SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKENS UPPER RIDGE N OF CARIB. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CURRENTLY PREVAIL CENTRAL PORTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE PASSAGES...WITH RECENT 0244Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING 24 KT TRADES OFF COLOMBIA TO 14N AND ALSO IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. 42058 NOW UP TO 9 FT AND SEAS LIKELY TO 10 FT OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. ABUNDANT ITCZ MOISTURE TO STREAM ACROSS WINDWARDS AND INTO ERN CARIB TODAY WITH NEXT WAVE WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-8 FT SE PORTIONS. 01Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED WEAK TROFFING ALONG 59W S OF 13N WITH WINDS AROUND 15 KT...AND 15-20 KT E OF REMAINDER OF LESSER ANTILLES. BROAD AND ELONGATED ELY FETCH ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS BUILT UP ELY WIND SWELL...WITH PEAK OF 9-11 FT CURRENTLY MOVING INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS ATTM AS CAPTURED BY RECENT BUOY OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA. THESE WAVES WILL CONTINUE WWD AND THROUGH THE BASIN NEXT 3-4 DAYS BEFORE REACHING CENTRAL AMERICA. CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE ALONG 30N WILL SINK SLIGHTLY S TO 27N BY WED AND WEAKEN AS IT IS FORCED EWD...WITH STRONG TRADES CENTRAL PORTIONS THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 25 KT BY WED AFTERNOON. WEAK HIGH WILL SHIFT E FROM GULF OF MEXICO REGION INTO SW N ATLC WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT FOR MODEST AREA OF STRONG TRADES S CENTRAL PORTIONS THEN. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. T.S. KATE LOOKING BETTER ORGANIZED EARLY THIS MORNING AND HAS TURNED N AND BEGUN TO ACCELERATE...AND WILL GRADUALLY TURN NE THIS AFTERNOON AND EXIT THE AREA TO THE N. GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL FILL IN BEHIND IT AND MOVE INTO NW PORTIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND REACH FROM NEAR 31N78.5W TO CAPE CANAVERAL BY 00Z TONIGHT...THEN NEAR BERMUDA TO PALM BEACH 00Z THU...AND STALL FROM NEAR 28N65W TO EXTREME S FL BY 00Z FRI. FRESH E TO SE TRADES PREVAIL SE PORTIONS ATTM WITH ELY WIND SWELL CREATING SEAS 7-8 FT S OF 25N AND E OF 70W. SMALL WIND FIELD OF KATE WILL GENERATE A SMALL WAVE FIELD REMAINDER OF DAY...WITH PREVIOUSLY GENERATED SE SWELL IN NE SEMICIRCLE OF PAST 24 HOURS TO MOVE INTO SE U.S. COASTAL WATERS NEXT 36 HRS...AND MINIMAL ENERGY HITTING NE FLORIDA N OF CANAVERAL. ELY TRADE WIND SWELL TO DOMINATE WATERS S OF 27N THROUGH WED BEFORE SUBSIDING WITH WEAK ATLC RIDGE SINKING SLIGHTLY S TO 27N BY WED AND BEING REPLACED BY WEAKER RIDGE SHIFTING ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO ATLC ALONG 26.5N THU AND FRI. NEXT FRONT TO MOVE SE INTO NW WATERS FRI MORNING AND SLOWLY SE THROUGH SAT...REACHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO MIA AREA BY 12Z. N TO NW WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CREATE MODEST NLY SWELL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TODAY. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING EARLY TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.