000 AGXX40 KNHC 091932 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 232 PM EST MON NOV 9 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH DAY 3...THEN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE. THE PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS A 1013 MB LOW PRES JUST SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SE FROM IT TO 27N85W AND SW TO 24N89W THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 23N92W AND TO 19N95W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO ACROSS N CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO SE GEORGIA. WEAK HIGH PRES IS BUILDING SE BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW. THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EARLIER STRONG NLY WINDS IN THE SW GULF IS WEAKENING ALLOWING FOR THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT. HOWEVER...LINGERING N SWELL PRODUCING SEAS TO 9 FT THERE WILL BE SLOW IN SUBSIDING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. THESE SEAS ARE BETTER REPRESENTED BY THE NWPS WAVEHEIGHTS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE NNE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DURING THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING PUSHING THE FRONT EASTWARD WHILE STALLING AND WEAKENING THROUGH TUE NIGHT AS IT REACHES THE FAR SE GULF. THE LATEST MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE WEAK HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH WED NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAKES HEADWAY TOWARDS THE GULF. THE 12 UTC GFS AGREES WITHIN THE LATEST ECMWF GUIDANCE IN SHOWING THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW GULF WED NIGHT. THE 12 UTC UKMET AND NAVGEM HAVE ALSO COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH SCENARIO. THIS FRONT SHOULD REACH A POSITION FROM NEAR FROM PENSACOLA TO NEAR 267N92W AND STATIONARY TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS THU AFTERNOON...FROM NEAR CEDER KEY TO BROWNSVILLE BY LATE FRI...THEN GRADUALLY WASH OUT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH SAT. WEAK LOW PRES MAY FORM ON THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT JUST SE OF BROWNSVILLE ON THU...BUT SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON WINDS AS THE RESULTANT TIGHT GRADIENT SET IN PLACE BY THE STRONG HIGH PRES WILL INDUCE FRESH NE WINDS ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF SAT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 OR 10 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: USED 12 UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ALONG WITH A PERCENTAGE OF LATEST MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 66W/67W MOVING W ABOUT 15-20 KT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST ALONG THE COAST OF NE HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS NEAR 15N67.5W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO THE SE OF THIS FEATURE IN COMBINATION WITH THE WAVE ALONG 66W IS HELPING TO BRING EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS E OF LINE FROM S CENTRAL HISPANIOLA TO TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. THE WAVE IN THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA THIS EVENING. THE WAVE ALONG 66W WILL REACH NEAR 73W BY EARLY TUE...NEAR 77W WED AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN LATE WED THROUGH LATE THU. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1438 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED FRESH E-SE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE TUE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...THEN THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THU THROUGH EARLY FRI AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA SAT. THESE WAVES IN COMBINATION WITH ATLC HIGH PRES THAT BUILDS WESTWARD AS T.S KATE QUICKLY DEPARTS THE ATLC BASIN...WILL FURTHER SUPPORT EXTENDING THE DURATION OF THE PRESENT FRESH ELY TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND WESTERN PART OF EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 8-9 FT. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: USED 12 UTC GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WINDS...EXCEPT APPLIED ECMWF IN AREA OF T.S. KATE AND ITS PROJECTED FORECAST TRACK. FOR WAVEHEIGHTS USED BLEND OF TAFB WAVE PARAMETERS WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL ALONG WITH A PERCENTAGE OF 12 UTC MWW3. HIGH CONFIDENCE. T.D. TWELVE WAS UPGRADED TO T.S. KATE AT 15 UTC THIS MORNING WITH A CENTRAL PRES OF 1008 MB...AND AS OF 18 UTC WAS CENTERED NEAR 25N76W OR ABOUT 140 MILES SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND. BUOYS 41010 AND 41047 ARE REPORTING SWELL FROM KATE WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7 FT. KATE IS QUICKLY MOVING NW AT 13 KT...AND IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT REACHES NEAR 26.1N 76.4W EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE ITS FORWARD MOTION AS IT APPROACHES 28.7N 76.0W EARLY TUE WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT...NEAR 31.6N 72.9W EARLY TUE EVENING WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT...AND TO N OF AREA NEAR 34.4N 68.7W EARLY WED WITH MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION TUE EVENING... REACH FROM 31N74W TO NEAR PALM BEACH WED MORNING...AND FROM 30N65W TO EXTREME SE FLORIDA THU MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE FRI. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS FRI...EXTEND FROM NEAR 31N72W TO CAPE CANAVERAL FRI NIGHT AND FROM NEAR 31N68W TO SE FLORIDA SAT. GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE RATHER LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NW PART SAT WHERE A TIGHTER GRADEINT THERE SHOULD PRODUCE MODERATE N WINDS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO TUE NIGHT. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... TROPICAL STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.