000 AGXX40 KNHC 080837 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 337 AM EST SUN NOV 8 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SE ACROSS N CENTRAL AND NW PORTIONS OF GULF AND NOW RACING DOWN W COASTAL SECTIONS TO NEAR 20N ATTM.ELONGATED TROUGH AHEAD OF FRONT HAS DEVELOPED INTO A WARM FRONT DRIFTING N AND VERY NEAR COLD FRONT OFF LA COASTAL WATERS...WITH ONE OR TWO LLVL LOWS HAVING SPUN UP ALONG THIS PRE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DURING THE PAST 6-9 HRS...AND ONE 1011 MB LOW CURRENTLY ANALYZED NEAR 27N91.5W. A SECOND LLVL SWIRL NOT REALIZED AT THE SFC SUGGESTED BY STLT IMAGERY TO THE NE OF THIS NEAR 27.8N90.6W. OIL RIGS NE THROUGH NW OF THESE FEATURES LIT UP TONIGHT WITH N TO NE WINDS 35-45 KT AND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 51 KT BY SHIP SHOAL 178. MODEL FORECAST A LLVL JET 35-40 KT ACROSS THIS AREA AND ECMWF HAS BEEN SUGGESTING A SMALL TIGHT LOW MOVING ENE OFF THE SE LA COAST PAST SEVERAL RUNS...AS WELL AS SREF SUGGESTING GALES ACROSS THE AREA PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. WEATHER OR NOT CONVECTIVELY INDUCED OR NOT...GALES LIKELY OCCURRING AT THE SFC IN FREQUENT GUSTS WELL ABOVE 34 KT...AND UPDATED FOR GMZ013 AND HSF TO ISSUE GALE THROUGH 12Z...ALTHOUGH 09Z MAY BE MORE APPROPRIATE. FRONT MAY NOT COMPLETELY MERGE WITH PRE FRONTAL TROUGH AND LOW BEFORE LOW MOVES NE AND ASHORE ACROSS FL PANHANDLE 48-60 HRS. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S ALONG MEXICAN COAST AND THROUGH ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC BY 18Z TODAY...WHILE ERN PORTION MOVES INTO BIG BEND AREA WITH WAVE ALONG FRONT ACROSS SECLUDED LOW MOVING OFFSHORE OF MOUTH OF MS RIVER. GALES EXPECTED BRIEFLY THIS MORNING OFF TAMPICO AREA W OF FRONT THROUGH ABOUT 18Z AND THEN TO BEGIN OFF OF VERACRUZ AREA W OF FRONT 18Z THROUGH 03-06Z. STRONG WINDS BEHIND FRONT AND BRIDGING ACROSS IT EXPECTED ACROSS W...NW...AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS THOUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE FORCING HIGH TO THE N SHIFTS E OF THE MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MID ATLC COAST...AND ASSOCIATED PRES GRADIENT THEN BEGINS TO DECREASE RATHER QUICKLY. HAVE ATTEMPTED TO USE A REASONABLE CONSENSUS BETWEEN ECMWF AND GFS THROUGH 48 HOURS. BEYOND MON...LOW CENTER TO LIFT NNE INTO SE U.S. AND LEAVING DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SW GULF LIFTING N AND WEAK WARM FRONT TUE AND TUE NIGHT. DEEP LAYERED LOW TO MOVE INTO GREAT PLAINS WED AND ALLOW HIGH ACROSS SE U.S. TO OPEN UP ACROSS W AND NW GULF FOR FRESHENING SLY FLOW W OF 90W. ASSOCIATED FRONT EXPECTED INTO TEXAS COASTAL WATERS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS ELONGATING UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES FROM SE BAHAMAS SE INTO N CENTRAL CARIB THEN E-SE TO FILLING VORT NEAR 16N65W. MUCH OF THE MOISTURE SHEARED TO THE NE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 68W AND WITH TROUGH TRAILING IT NOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA...HAS MOVED WNW ACROSS THE NE CARIB AND PUERTO RICO...AND ADDITIONAL MOISTURE LOOKS POISED TO MOVE NW ACROSS THE SAME AREA AGAIN TODAY. FRESHENING TRADES HAVE DEVELOPED S CENTRAL PORTIONS AS FORECAST WITH WINDS 20-25 KT S OF 14N AND SEAS BUILDING 7-9 FT ATTM. FARTHER NW BUOY 42058 IS NEAR 9 FT AND ABOUT 2 FT HIGHER THAT GLOBAL MODELS. FRESH SE WINDS ACROSS NE CARIB BEHIND TROUGH AND LOW-MID LVL VORT ALONG NE COAST OF HISPANIOLA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NW BY AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS REMAINING UP ACROSS THE NE AND E HALF OF BASIN 6-9 FT TODAY...BEFORE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE REACHING NEAR 60W BY 00Z THIS EVENING AND INCREASED PRES GRADIENT...BROAD ZONE OF STRONG TRADES AND ASSOCIATED ELY WIND SWELL MOVE INTO E CARIB TONIGHT THROUGH TUE. SEAS ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TO BUILD TO 8-11 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MODEST WIND SURGE TO ACCOMPANY THIS LOW LAT TROPICAL WAVE TONIGHT THROUGH WED ACROSS THE CARIB AND WILL FRESHEN TRADES TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE BASIN WITH IT AND RAISE SEAS CENTRAL PORTIONS 7-9 FT BY TUE NIGHT...AND 9-10 FT OFF OF COLOMBIA BY THEN AS WELL. WEAK RIDGING EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC LATTER HALF OF WEEK FOR MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND MODEST SEAS. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS COMPLEX SCENARIO SHAPING UP NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO NW PORTIONS...TROPICAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW-MID LVL VORT OFF HISPANIOLA MOVE NW THEN RECURVES NE THROUGH MID WEEK...WHILE BLOCKING UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS ALONG 65W. ELONGATING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS SE BAHAMAS INTO CARIB TO WEAKEN NEXT FEW DAYS AND DRIFT NWD BEFORE BEING EJECTED NE AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ERN U.S. TUE-WED...AND THIS TO INFLUENCE TIMING AND SPEED OF LOW-MID LVL VORT ALONG 70W ATTM. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS NE CARIB ISLANDS AND SPREADING NW INTO SE PORTIONS THEN SHIFT NWD AND TO THE NE OF THIS LLVL LOW. MODELS HAVE COME IN SOMEWHAT REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SCENARIO NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH ECMWF STILL FASTER IN LIFTING OUR LOW AHEAD OF FRONT TUE-WED. VERY BROAD FETCH OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL AND SUBTROPICAL ATLC HAS GENERATED AN ELY TRADE WIND SWELL MOVING INTO SE PORTIONS TONIGHT...WITH BUOY 41046 NOW 9 FT AND 41043 AT 10 FT. THESE LARGE SEAS TO CROSS 70W IN NEXT FEW HOURS AND WILL DOMINATE AREA SEAS NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLC RIDGE ALONG 30-31N ATTM TO SHIFT EWD AND WEAKEN THROUGH TONIGHT ONLY TO BE REINFORCED BY HIGH SHIFTING E INTO FAR W ATLC MON-TUE. THIS WILL PRODUCE SIZABLE ZONE OF FRESH E TO SE WINDS TO THE E AND NE OF THE LOW AS IT RECURVES THROUGH TUE. LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY NW NEXT 24-36 HRS BEFORE SLOWING SOME AS IT MAKES ITS TURN...WITH CURRENT STLT IMAGERY SHOWING VERY GOOD MID LVL TURNING INVOF 19.5N69W...BUT IS LIKELY NOT REACHING SURFACE YET. MODELS SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR CYCLOGENESIS LATE MON THROUGH TUE AND NHC NOW GIVING THIS FEATURE MEDIUM CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT TO TROPICAL CYCLONE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ013...N CENTRAL GULF INCLUDING FLOWER GARDEN BANKS MARINE SANCTUARY... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.