000 AGXX40 KNHC 071846 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 146 PM EST SAT NOV 7 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE NW GULF WATERS WHILE A LOW PRES REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 23N95W. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS DISPLACED TO NE OF THE LOW CENTER AFFECTING THE WATERS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 89W-84W. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. SURFACE DATA INDICATE MAINLY MODERATE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND FRESH E-SE WINDS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE PART OF THE GULF REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS FOLLOW THE FRONT. SEAS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE BASED ON BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE NW WATERS AND SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD BY EVENING...REACHING FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO...THEN REACH FROM NORTHER FLORIDA TO THE NORTH- CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N90W TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUN MORNING...WHERE IT WILL STALL. A LOW PRES MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF SUN EVENING OR NIGHT THEN OPEN INTO A TROUGH AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY DISSIPATES MON NIGHT INTO TUE. STRONG TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS W AND SW PORTIONS EARLY SUN THROUGH EARLY MON. A GALE WARNING IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE FORECAST ZONES GMZ017 AND GMZ023. THE LOW PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF IS FORECAST TO MERGE WITH THE FRONT IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. BEFORE THEN... SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE. A NEW COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WED NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. FARTHER E... THERE IS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N63W TO 16N64W. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE BASIN REACHING NEAR 75W/76W BY SUN MORNING...NEAR 79W/80W BY MON MORNING...AND NEAR 84W/85W BY TUE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN APPROACHING THE SE BAHAMAS ON SUN. A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE ATLANTIC IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. FRESHENING NE-E TRADES ARE EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY ACROSS THE NE AND N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE...AND ACROSS N HALF OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND ATLC COASTAL WATERS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO AS THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THIS AREA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD. WIND AND SEAS WILL INCREASE OFF OF VENEZUELA AND ABC ISLANDS SUN THEN EXPAND NWD SUN NIGHT INTO MON. WINDS WILL BE GREATEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...PARTICULARLY SUN NIGHT AND MON NIGHT. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY MON...AND MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH TUE AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE ATLC RIDGE IS SINKING SLOWLY SE AS HIGH PRES LOCATED E OF BERMUDA SHIFTS EASTWARD. AN OLD FRONT REMAINS ACTIVE ACROSS SE PORTIONS E OF 70W. VERY ACTIVE AND SQUALLY WEATHER IS FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND SPREAD NW INTO SE PORTIONS OF AREA NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO 27N WHERE SEAS ARE 8-10 FT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE NOTED JUST N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA PER A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE SE BAHAMAS ON SUN ROUGHLY EXTENDING FROM 25N69W TO 20N71W. A LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS BY MON WHEN THE TROUGH REACHES FROM 27N73W TO 21N74W. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR OR EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. LONG EASTERLY FETCH FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO 65W SETTING UP WITH FRONTAL ZONE WILL GENERATE SEAS OF 9-11 FT MOVING INTO SE PORTIONS TONIGHT INTO SUN. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE NW WATERS SUN BEFORE STALLING AND DRIFTING NW MON. FRESH TO STRONG NE TO E WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING SUN. .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING SUN INTO SUN NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.