000 AGXX40 KNHC 060843 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 343 AM EST FRI NOV 6 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS HIGH PRES LOCATED OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS THE N GULF COASTS...WHILE A TUTT LOW SHIFTING WWD ACROSS THE YUCATAN IS COMBINING WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IN THAT VCNTY TO CARVE OUT AN INVERTED LLVL TROUGH OFF THE NW COAST OF THE YUCATAN. RECENT SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA SHOW MODERATE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN..EXCEPT FOR FRESH E WINDS THROUGH THE STRAITS. SEAS RUNNING 2-4 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR 5-6 FT THROUGH STRAITS AND DOWNWIND TO OFFSHORE OF YUCATAN. THE TUTT LOW AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE WWD AND ACROSS SW GULF TODAY THEN DRIFT TO ALONG ABOUT 95W THROUGHSAT WHERE GLOBAL MODELS DEVELOP AN ELONGATED N TO S LOW. THIS TO OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF SAT MORNING. ANY LINGERING LLVL VORTICITY SHOULD LIFT OUT TO THE NE AS DEPICTED BY ECMWF...WHILE COLD FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY SUN ACROSS THE NE GULF AND RACES SWD ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST AND TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUN AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON GALES OCCURRING IN THE NW GULF BY 00Z SUN...ALTHOUGH SREF STILL INDICATED MODERATE CHANCES. GALES HOWEVER ARE EXPECTED CENTRAL COASTAL PORTIONS OF MEXICO SUN MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...AND THEN OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ SUN AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING LATE SUN NIGHT. WW3 NOT SHOWING QUICK ENOUGH WAVE GROWTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE BLENDED NWPS TO NUDGE UPWARDS TO AROUND 12 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS GULF OF HONDURAS AND YUCATAN THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVE CONVECTION TRAILING IT ACROSS NW PORTIONS. RECENT SCAT DATA SHOWED FRESH E TO SE WINDS ACROSS NW PORTIONS PRODUCING SEAS 5-7 FT THERE. THIS TO SHIFT WWD ACROSS YUCATAN NEXT 12-18 HOURS WITH WINDS FRESHENING SLIGHTLY ACROSS GULF OF HONURAS.A SECOND COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE ALSO INTERACTING WITH A TUTT LOW IS ACROSS THE E CARIB ALONG ABOUT 64W...WITH TRAILING LLVL VORT TO THE E OF THE ISLANDS STRUNG OUT TO 55W. ATLC RIDGE E TO W ALONG 35N ATTM WILL SHIFT SE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BEGIN TO TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE NE CARIB AND N THROUGH NE OF THIS WAVE COMPLEX...ALLOWING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO BLOW THROUGH NE CARIB PASSAGES. MODELS SHOW TRAILING VORT TO SHIFT NW ACROSS NE CARIB AND ADJACENT ISLANDS THROUGH SUN AND THEN CONTINUE NW EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE WWD ACROSS THE CARIB REACHING 72W 00Z SUN AND 78W 00Z MON. TRADEWINDS TO INCREASE N OF WAVE AXIS SAT AND SUN AND MAINLY AFFECT CARIB WATERS OF GREATER ANTILLES AND PASSAGES...AND THEN S CARIB BEHIND WAVE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON. A THIRD LOW LATITUDE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 40W WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS SUN...WITH FRESH TRADEWINDS WITH AND BEHIND IT...AND A BROAD WAVE FIELD OF 8-9 FT SEAS IN E TRADE WIND SWELL GENERATED BY LONG ELY FETCH ACROSS THE ATLC. SMALL AREAS TO 10 FT EXPECTED CENTRAL PORTIONS DURING THAT TIME. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N WITH OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO ITS S HAVING MOVED INTO NE PORTIONS IN BACKDOOR MANNER. COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS E CARIB ATTM WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS PR/USVI AND ADJACENT ATLC. SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT HAS PREVAILED PAST 24 HOURS THROUGH SRN BAHAMAS AND STRAITS OF FL TO PRODUCE FRESH ELY TRADES. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT SE AND PASS E OF BERMUDA TODAY...AND ACT TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROPICAL WAVE TO YIELD FRESH TO STRONG E BREEZE ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL AND SE WATERS ON TODAY...THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE S WATERS LATE SAT INTO SUN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TRAILING VORT TO THE E OF THE WAVE WILL SHIFT NW ACROSS THE NE CARIB TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...REACHING TURKS AND CAICOS BY 00Z MON...WHERE MODELS SUGGEST AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. FOR NOW... FRESH TO STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN THE LOW AND RIDGE THROUGH AT LEAST MON NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW WATERS SUN FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NE-E WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THEN...THE FRONT WILL MOVE BACK AND N OF THE AREA ON MON AS A LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST OFF NE FLORIDA OR THE GEORGIA COAST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ017...W CENTRAL GULF FROM 22N TO 26N W OF 94W... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.