000 AGXX40 KNHC 041910 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 PM EST WED NOV 4 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY AS IT CONTINUES TO DRIFT TO THE W-NW. RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS W OF THE FRONT BUT N OF 25N...AND E-SE WINDS E OF THE FRONT. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOWED MAINLY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NE-E WINDS JUST OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE THERMAL TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS EACH EVENING OVER THAT PENINSULA AND MOVES WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOUR. MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THROUGH SAT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE. A SLOW- MOVING COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT WITH A REINFORCING COLD AIR PUSH SHIFTING IT SOUTHWARD TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO SUN. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 9 FT WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WELL-DEFINED LATE SEASON TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 80W/81W. THIS WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER NE HONDURAS. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO INDUCE CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. THE WAVE WILL MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN APPROACHING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. ELSEWHERE... SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SEAS IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND 3-5 FT RANGE W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. WINDS SLIGHTLY INCREASE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA WHERE THE 1358 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED MAINLY FRESH NE-E WINDS WITH A FEW WIND BARBS OF 25 KT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THE PRES GRADIENT NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL BRIEFLY TIGHTEN ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG BY LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH A SIMILAR PULSE EXPECTED LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS MAINLY N OF 15N FRI THROUGH SAT AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N AND A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10 FT. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT W-NW MOVING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON SAT WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY LATE SUN. AS A RESULT... EXPECT E-SE WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY LATE SUN WITH SEAS OF AROUND 8 FT. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE SW N ATLANTIC MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AN ALTIMETER PASS INDICATE SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...4-6 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE REGION THU NIGHT THROUGH SAT BETWEEN A HIGH PRES CENTER LOCATED N OF AREA AND A TROUGH OR WEAK LOW PRES NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE OF WINDS AND SEAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN WATERS. BASED ON MARINE GUIDANCE...EXPECT EASTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 8-10 FT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA SUN. FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT IN NW WATERS SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.