000 AGXX40 KNHC 280718 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 318 AM EDT WED OCT 28 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN WATERS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS SHOWED MAINLY MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS A 1014 MB HIGH PRES SETTLES OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS. MODERATE W TO NW WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-5 FT ARE STILL NOTED W OF THE FRONT OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL WATERS WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE OVER THE SW GULF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK HIGH PRES. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF TODAY WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THU EVENING LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE NW GULF WED NIGHT...EXTENDING FROM SW LOUISIANA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. BY THU...THE FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NW GULF WATERS AND MOVE BACK INLAND BY THU EVENING. THEN...MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF ON FRI AND ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE NW GULF LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 10 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE WINDS BY SAT MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FAR NW GULF BY SAT NIGHT...REACHING FROM NEAR MOBILE ALABAMA TO TAMPICO MEXICO BY LATE SUN. CURRENTLY...MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. BUOYS AND A FEW SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT SEAS ARE IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND 4-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS AND WAVES IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...PARTICULARLY AT NIGHT. PRESENTLY...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 5-7 FT NEAR THE COASTS OF NW VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LONG PERIOD NE SWELL SHOULD REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS WILL INTRODUCE SEAS OF 6-7 FT TO THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NW WATERS WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT. SIMILAR WIND SPEEDS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE NE WATERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N70W TO 27N73W. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH IS N OF HISPANIOLA AND EXTENDS FROM 24N71W TO 20N71.5W. THE LATTER HAS BEEN MEANDERING N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL DAYS. FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NW WATERS TODAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE SE UNITED STATES COAST THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N74W TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA ON THU EVENING... FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS ON FRI EVENING...AND FROM 30N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SAT MORNING WHILE GRADUALLY WEAKENING. IN ADDITION...EXPECT BUILDING SEAS IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE IN NE SWELL ACROSS THE FAR NE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH THE NW WATERS BY FRI EVENING AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE OVER THE N WATERS. HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.