000 AGXX40 KNHC 270719 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 319 AM EDT TUE OCT 27 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN OCCLUDED LOW PRES SYSTEM IS LOCATED OVER SE LOUISIANA. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 25N87W TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NE GULF. BUOY 42039 LOCATED AT 28.7N86W IS REPORTING SEAS UP TO 13 FT. FRESH TO STRONG WINDS AND SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE PREVAIL OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHERN WATERS W OF FRONT...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-7 FT OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS THE SE GULF BY WED EVENING WHERE IT WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY THU EVENING. A RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE FAR NE GULF EARLY ON THU NIGHT...THEN BE REPLACED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDING S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OVER THE EASTERN GULF. MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF ON FRI AND ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT OVER THE FAR NW GULF LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO AROUND 9 FT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE WINDS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NW GULF BY SAT NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS AND 4-5 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS AND WAVES IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 5-7 FT NEAR THE COASTS OF NW VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LONG PERIOD NE SWELL SHOULD REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS WILL INTRODUCE SEAS OF 6-7 FT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A FRONTAL TROUGH PREVAILS OVER THE SE WATERS. LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS DEPICT MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE N WATERS AND NEAR THE ENTRANCE OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-6 FT RANGE OUTSIDE THE BAHAMAS AND 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MEANDER JUST N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH MIDWEEK WHILE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. BY WED...EXPECT MAINLY MODERATE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE NE PART WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 6-8 FT AS THE RIDGE IS REINFORCED BY A STRONGER HIGH PRES EXITING THE NE PART OF UNITED STATES. THEN...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE NW WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA BY EARLY THU MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N72W TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY THU NIGHT...AND FROM NEAR 31N68W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA BY LATE FRI WHILE WEAKENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.