000 AGXX40 KNHC 260730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT MON OCT 26 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS ALONG WITH SOME MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 29.5N93W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 25N91W TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N92W. STRONG TO GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT BUT MAINLY N OF 26N. SEAS WITHIN THE GALE WARNING WIND AREA ARE IN THE RANGE OF 10-13 FT BASED ON AN EARLIER ALTIMETER PASS. STRONG TO GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO ABOUT 89W WITH SEAS IN THE 8-11 FT RANGE. A 90 NM WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS IS STILL ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW AND FRONT THROUGH THIS MORNING...WHILE STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH LATE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE SE CONUS BETWEEN THE LOW AND A STRONG HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE NE UNITED STATES. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 25N86W TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W THIS EVENING...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE EVENING AND ACROSS THE SE GULF BY WED EVENING. A RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF ON TUE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE FAR NE GULF EARLY ON THU NIGHT...THEN BE REPLACED BY STRONGER HIGH PRES BUILDING S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO OVER THE EASTERN GULF. MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF ON FRI WITH SEAS BUILDING TO POSSIBLY 8 FT. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT BY FRI NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS DOMINATE MOST OF THE BASIN. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE BUOYS SHOW SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-4 FT. HIGHER SEAS OF 4-7 FT ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WATERS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES DUE TO A NE SWELL COMPONENT. A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF WINDS AND WAVES IS STILL EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS EASTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 5-7 FT. ADDITIONAL PULSES OF LONG PERIOD NE SWELL SHOULD REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLANTIC WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THIS WILL INTRODUCE SEAS OF 6-7 FT TO THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ON FRI. ..SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST MWW3 FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CAROLINAS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER THE SE WATERS. THIS PATTERN IS ALLOWING FOR RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE BASIN. BUOYS NE OF THE BAHAMAS ARE INDICATING SEAS OF 5-6 FT WHILE LOWER SEAS OF 2-3 FT ARE SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE ABOVE MENTIONED FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MEANDER JUST N OF PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS WHILE SLOWLY DISSIPATING. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE NW WATERS LATER TODAY AS THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE SE CONUS BETWEEN THE LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE STATE OF LOUISIANA AND A STRONG HIGH PRES MOVING ACROSS THE NE UNITED STATES. BY WED...EXPECT MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE NE PART WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 6-8 FT AS THE RIDGE IS REINFORCED BY THE STRONG HIGH PRES EXITING THE NE PART OF UNITED STATES. THEN...SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE NW WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THU AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THIS AREA BY EARLY THU MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N72W TO THE NW BAHAMAS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY THU NIGHT...AND FROM NEAR 31N69W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NEAR NW CUBA BY LATE FRI WHILE WEAKENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ011...NW GULF INCLUDING STETSON BANK... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.