000 AGXX40 KNHC 210800 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT WED OCT 21 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE S ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF WHERE DRY SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN THE WSW BASIN...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 24N93W TO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N92W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS. TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND BROAD LOWER PRES OVER THE SW BASIN WILL MAINTAIN 20-25 KT E WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH THU MORNING...EXCEPT OVER THE NW WATERS WHERE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THU NIGHT. SEAS WILL PEAK TO 10 FT DURING THIS PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING...WEAKENING TO A NW TO SE ORIENTATED TROUGH FROM 22N96W TO 18N93W WED EVENING. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND TO THE NW BASIN THROUGH THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS. LINGERING SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH THAT MOVED INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS W OF 82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALONG CUBA...WINDWARD PASSAGE...HISPANIOLA AND ADJACENT WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH A STATIONARY FRONT N OF THE AREA WITH TAIL FROM THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO NORTHERN CUBA. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS LATE WED FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NW AND N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A TROUGH...ANALYZED FROM 7-14N ALONG 56W WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE E BASIN LATE WED THROUGH THU...GUIDANCE DISSIPATING TROUGH BY FRI. TRADES OF 20-25 KT WILL PULSE AT OR NEAR THE GULF OF VENEZUELA THROUGH THU MORNING. OTHERWISE GENTLE- MODERATE TRADES FORECAST THROUGH PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. LATEST NWPS FOR WAVES WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR OBSERVATIONS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N51W SW TO 23N67W ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 23N BETWEEN 54W AND 67W AND FROM 19N TO 27N BETWEEN 67W AND 72W...ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT ELSEWHERE W OF 72W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG HIGH N OF THE AREA SUPPORT NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT REACHING TO 77W AND THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK. COMBINED SEAS OF 8-12 FT EXIST E OF THE BAHAMAS...AND 5-6 FT SEAS ARE OBSERVED THROUGHOUT THE FL STRAITS AND EXPOSED BAHAMIAN WATERS. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A LOW PRESSURE CENTER DEVELOPING NE OF SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WED NIGHT...FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW TO THE N-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS. NE FLOW W OF THE FRONT WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT ON FRI. NE-E 15 KT WINDS EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT ON SAT AND 10-15 KT ON SUN. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.