000 AGXX40 KNHC 180801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 401 AM EDT SUN OCT 18 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS WSW TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 22N91W. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SSE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 28N82W TO THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL BASIN NEAR 27N88W WHERE IT STALLS TO SOUTHERN TEXAS. LATEST SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE ENE WINDS OF 20-25 KT DOMINATING ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT S OF 20N W OF 95W WHERE A GALE WARNING PERSISTS. THE SECONDARY FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH STRONG 1034 MB HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. INDUCING STRONG PRES GRADIENT AND NE WINDS 20-25 KT BUILDING ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH MON. SEAS WILL BUILD QUICKLY WITH LARGE AREA OF 8-13 FT SEAS FROM THE FLORIDA OFFSHORES TO SW PORTIONS. THE GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ALONG THE COAST NEAR VERACRUZ THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...CONTINGENT ON TROUGH OR LOW LINGERING NEAR CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS. ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN W OF 80W... BEING SUPPORTED BY A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST N OF GUATEMALA AND AN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A RIDGE. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER IS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH WED MORNING. RECENT ASCAT DATA SHOW E TO NE WINDS 10-15 KT ACROSS NW PORTIONS N OF 20N AND W OF 80W...AND TRADES OF 15-20 KT OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL AND SE CARIBBEAN...STRONGEST NEAR THE GULF OF VENEZUELA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE...A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO NEW FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO W ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTING NE SUPPORT A LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE. MAX SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IN PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MON WHEN DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WILL SUPPORT A BRIEF PULSING OF TRADES UP TO 25 KT IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA AND AND WESTERN BONAIRE TRENCH. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. ATLC FRONT TO SINK SE AND REACH STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N65W BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND IT BEGINNING TO INCREASE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIB AND BRING ABOUT EXPANDING AREA OF FRESH TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO NW BAHAMAS TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS...WITH A COLD REINFORCING FRONT BEHIND IT AND MOVING INTO NW WATERS AND N CENTRAL FLORIDA. MODEL GUIDANCE AND PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES SUGGEST LIGHT TO GENTLE E TO SE WINDS SE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH SEAS TO 2 FT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 30N68W TO NEAR MIAMI BY 06Z MON AND NEAR 30N55W TO TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY 06Z TUE. 1030+ HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND SECOND BOUNDARY WILL INDUCE STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS WATERS TO NW OF FRONT AND GRADUALLY YIELD BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS WITH MODELS STILL SUGGESTING NARROW ZONE OF 25-30 KT WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 200 NM N OF FRONT ACROSS BAHAMAS AND FL COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUE. LONG NE FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT WAVE GROWTH AND PEAK SEAS 12-13 FT JUST N AND E OF BAHAMAS STILL EXPECTED ON MON AND TUE. FRONT TO LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING MODESTLY TUE THROUGH WED...BUT STILL CREATING ROUGH AND HIGH SEAS TO N OF MEANDERING FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY INTO MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.