000 AGXX40 KNHC 171901 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 301 PM EDT SAT OCT 17 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. STATIONARY BOUNDARY PERSISTS ACROSS S PORTIONS FROM SW FLORIDA TO NEAR 22N95W...AND DRY SECONDARY FRONT MOVING S-SW ACROSS N AND NE PORTIONS...WITH ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS BETWEEN THE 2 BOUNDARIES...AND ALSO BEGINNING TO FILL IN TO THE N OF DRY FRONT. GALE WARNING WENT INTO EFFECT AT 12Z THIS MORNING...BUT OBS FROM ISLA DE SACRIFICIO AND VERACRUZ ONLY SHOWING WINDS NEAR 30 KT THUS FAR TODAY. LITTLE CHANGE IN RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE...AND MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH SECONDARY DRY FRONT PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS THE BASIN NEXT 48 HOURS WITH STRONG 1030+ MB HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. INDUCING STRONG PRES GRADIENT AND NE WINDS 20-25 KT BUILDING ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH SUN...WITH GFS CONTINUING TO SUGGEST NARROW ZONE OF 25-30 KT WINDS WITHIN 120 NM N OF FRONT LATE SUN AND MON. SEAS WILL BUILD QUICKLY WITH LARGE AREA OF 8-12 FT SEAS FROM OFFSHORE OF CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SW PORTIONS. GFS ALSO SUGGESTING GALE TO PERSIST ALONG COAST NEAR VERACRUZ...BUT THAT CONTINGENT ON TROUGH OR LOW LINGERING NEAR CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE. ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS SHOWING LOW CENTER FARTHER E AND THIS MAY REDUCE PRES GRADIENT ENOUGH FOR GALES TO END THERE LATE MON. OTHERWISE...CENTRAL AMERICAN GYRE WILL PREVAIL FROM EPAC N-NE ACROSS YUCATAN AND ADJACENT MARINE AREAS E AND W...AND GRADUALLY DRIFT WWD THROUGH MON FOR VERY WET AND SQUALLY WEATHER ACROSS SW QUARTER OF BASIN. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS. ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 83W... ASSOCIATED WITH THE CENTRAL AMERICAN MONSOONAL GYRE EXTENDING FROM EPAC NNE ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND ADJACENT GULFMEX AND W CARIB. THIS ACTIVE WEATHER LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA NEXT FEW DAYS AS GYRE SHIFTS VERY SLIGHTLY WWD THROUGH TUE. RECENT 15Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED E TO E-SE WINDS 15-25 KT ACROSS NW PORTIONS N OF 17N AND W OF 86W...ALL INFLOW INTO LLVL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS INTERIOR YUCATAN. ELSEWHERE...ATLC RIDGE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY PAST 24 HOURS AS NEW FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO W ATLC...AND PRODUCING VERY MODEST PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE E AND CENTRAL CARIB. FRESH E TO E-SE TRADES 15-20 KT PREVAIL ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS PER THIS RECENT ASCAT PASS...AND ARE SLIGHTLY N OF CLIMO POSITION...FROM 12-16N. MAX SEAS LESS THAN 8 FT ATTM...WITH BUOY 42058 DOWN TO 6 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IN PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH MON AS ATLC RIDGE RETREATS TO THE NE AND ALLOWS FOR ONLY BRIEF PULSING OF TRADES OFF OF LAKE MARACAIBO REGION TO 25 KT AT NIGHT...WHILE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ELSEWHERE...AND W PORTIONS WILL RESPOND TO POTENTIAL DEEPENING OF LOW PRES ACROSS THE YUCATAN AND SW GULFMEX. ATLC FRONT TO SINK SE AND REACH STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO NEAR 26N65W BY MON AFTERNOON...WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND IT BEGINNING TO INCREASE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIB AND BRING ABOUT EXPANDING AREA OF FRESH TRADES ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH WED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NW BAHAMAS AND EXTREME S FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DRY REINFORCING FRONT BEHIND IT AND MOVING INTO NW WATERS AND N CENTRAL FLORIDA. MODEL GUIDANCE AND PARTIAL ASCAT PASSES THIS MORNING SUGGEST LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS SE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH MILD SEAS. SECOND FRONT TO DRIFT SE THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SE OVERNIGHT...REACHING 31N69W TO NEAR PALM BEACH BY 00Z MON AND NEAR 25N65W TO JUST OFFSHORE OF HABANA CUBA BY 00Z TUE. 1030+ HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND BOUNDARY WILL INDUCE STRONG PRES GRADIENT ACROSS WATERS TO NW OF FRONT AND GRADUALLY YIELD BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS WITH MODELS STILL SUGGESTING NARROW ZONE OF 25-30 KT WINDS WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM N OF FRONT ACROSS BAHAMAS AND FL COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND MON. LONG NE FETCH WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT WAVE GROWTH AND PEAK SEAS 12-13 FT JUST E OF BAHAMAS STILL EXPECTED ON MON...WHILE NWPS CONTINUES TO FORECAST SIMILAR SEAS AS WAVE INTERACT WITH GULFSTREAM...ALBEIT NEAR PERPENDICULAR. FRONT TO LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING MODESTLY TUE THROUGH WED...BUT STILL CREATING ROUGH AND HIGH SEAS TO N OF MEANDERING FRONT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING TODAY. GALE WARNING SUN. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON NIGHT. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.