000 AGXX40 KNHC 160754 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 354 AM EDT FRI OCT 16 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WSW TO THE CENTRAL GULF...BECOMING DIFFUSE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. GENTLE TO MODERATE E-NE FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS MOST OF BASIN...EXCEPT FOR THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA THUS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS. WINDS TURN MORE NLY IN THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE...DIVING THROUGH THE TEHUANTEPEC REGION WHERE ONGOING GALE WARNING EVENT CONTINUES. RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES WILL FRESHEN E-NE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THROUGH MIDDAY FRI...THEN A STRONG HIGH BUILDING S AND SW OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION BLASTS A SECOND FRONT INTO N COASTAL WATERS EARLY SAT MORNING FURTHER ENHANCING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. THIS TO COMBINE WITH DEVELOPING MONSOONAL GYRE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA-YUCATAN-TEHUANTEPEC REGION AND A PERSISTENT COASTAL TROUGH ALONG MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS WILL PRODUCE NEAR GALE WARNINGS OFFSHORE OF VERACRUZ BY SAT MORNING...INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO GALE WARNING FORCE AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST SUN NIGHT. BROAD STRONG WIND FIELD TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN MON- WED FOR VERY HIGH SEAS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND. ACTIVE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 70W...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE REACHING E NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. CNVTN WILL SHIFT W OF 80W BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PREVAIL IN THIS REGION THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...INCLUDING INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES DOMINATE ACROSS THE BASIN TONIGHT...EXCEPT OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF VENEZUELA WHERE A STRONG BREEZE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT STRONG E-NE WINDS IN THIS REGION THROUGH WED. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN IN THE NW CARIBBEAN BY SATURDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO STRENGTHENS AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE E YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS WILL RESULT IN A FRESH BREEZE. PRES GRADIENT TO WEAKEN ACROSS E HALF OF BASIN SAT NIGHT AS ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS AND RETREATS NE WHILE COLD FRONT ENTERS W ATLC. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. DISSIPATING FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N67W SW ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS TO WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF ANDROS ISLAND. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH SUPPORT THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM 30N69W SW TO CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 27N80W THEN ACROSS THE EASTERN CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK. THE FRONT WILL STALL IN THE NW BASIN FRIDAY WHILE WEAKENING AND WILL DISSIPATE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. A STRONG HIGH BUILDING S OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BLAST A SECOND FRONT INTO THE NW BASIN LATE SAT THROUGH MON MORNING...SIGNIFICANTLY TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE BASIN. A LONG FETCH OF NE TO ENE WINDS WILL ENTER THE AREA NW OF FRONT AND INTO FLORIDA COASTLINE...THROUGH THE STRAITS AND WESTERN PORTION OF THE GREAT BAHAMA BANK. GOOD POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF 30 KT WINDS WITH GALE WARNING FORCE GUSTS BETWEEN 72W AND FLORIDA MON MORNING WITH MAX SEAS BUILDING TO 10-13 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ023...SW GULF S OF 22N W OF 94W... GALE WARNING SAT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN INTO MON. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER RAMOS. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.