000 AGXX40 KNHC 091732 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 132 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF SAT...WITH A PUSH OF COOL DRIER AIR SLOWLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE SE GULF THROUGH MON. MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED N OF THE COLD FRONT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT SUN THROUGH TUE. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF TUE NIGHT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 67W WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON. GFS MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WAVE SLOWING INTO MONDAY AND DEVELOPING A LOW OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE ECMWF SLOWS THE PROGRESS OF THE WAVE WITH NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. ELSEWHERE...MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL BETWEEN LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. THIS WILL SUPPORT SEAS AROUND 8 FEET OVER PORTIONS OF THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE NIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR NORTHERLY WINDS SUN INTO MON OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK LOW OVER IS OVER CENTRAL FL WITH A DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL FL OVER THE SW N ATLC. THE FRONT WILL COMPLETELY DISSIPATE BY TONIGHT...WHILE THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS TO THE ENE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO NW WATERS SAT NIGHT...WHILE THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LINKS UP WITH THE COLD FRONT AND ACCELERATES TO THE NE SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SUN AND WILL BEGIN TO STALL FROM THE FL STRAITS TO 31N75W ON MON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC MON NIGHT WHICH WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS TUE NIGHT NE OF THE BAHAMAS. CONVECTION WILL INCREASE AROUND AND SE OF THE WEAK LOW AND COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...DECREASING AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NE AND THE FRONT BEGINS TO STALL OUT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.