000 AGXX40 KNHC 080738 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 338 AM EDT THU OCT 8 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN...ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE SW HALF OF THE GULF AND 2-4 FT SEAS IN THE NE HALF OF THE GULF. SURFACE TROUGHING CURRENTLY ALONG 27N80W TO 22N92W WILL LINGER IN THE SE GULF TODAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THIS TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT BACK TO THE WNW THROUGH FRI. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF SAT MORNING THEN STALLING ACROSS THE N GULF THROUGH SUN. OTHER THAN A BRIEF WIND SHIFT...LIGHT WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS WILL PREVAIL LATER TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES JUST NE OF THE BASIN COMBINED WITH LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES AND RESULTANT 7-9 FT SEAS IN THE S CENTRAL WATERS. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE N CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES TO BE CONFINED VERY CLOSE TO THE COASTS OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE W TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACCOMPANYING IT MAINLY E OF THE ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT BRINGING SQUALLS AND GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. THE WAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS PUERTO RICO THU NIGHT...THEN WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA FRI INTO SAT. A SURGE OF FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 8-10 FT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE BASIN IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING AND DIMINISHING BY THE WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN. NE SWELL CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE WATERS WITH SEAS OF 6-8 FT. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT TO LESS THAN 8 FT. SURFACE TROUGHING CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM 31N71W TO 27N80W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS COVERS THE AREA E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS SLIGHTLY E THROUGH SAT. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE TO THE E REACHING FROM 31N67W TO 23N80W THU NIGHT THEN STALL THROUGH FRI AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW PORTION BY EARLY SAT MORNING REACHING FROM 31N76W TO 26N81W SUN MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL SKIRT ACROSS THE WATERS S OF 22N...MOVING ACROSS ZONE AMZ127 TODAY AND TONIGHT... THEN ACROSS AMZ125 AND AMZ123 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. OTHERWISE HIGH PRES RIDGING WILL PREVAIL. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER PAW. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.