000 AGXX40 KNHC 061718 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 118 PM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SERIES OF SURFACE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE BASIN WITH A PARENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS LOW HAD BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT IS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE AREA TO THE NE AS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BUILDS IN FROM THE WSW. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENTLE TO MODERATE N-NE FLOW ACROSS THE BASIN ALONG WITH 1-3 FT SEAS IN THE SW HALF OF THE GULF...AND 3-5 FT SEAS IN THE NE HALF OF THE GULF. THE FINAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SE GULF BY WED MORNING WHERE A PORTION OF IT WILL STALL AND LINGER THROUGH THU...EVENTUALLY LIFTING BACK TO THE N-NE THROUGH FRI BEFORE DISSIPATING OR BECOMING ABSORBED BY A WEAK COLD FRONT SAT. OVERALL TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 1020 MB HIGH PRES IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 25N56W...WHILE BROAD LOW PRES IS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY N OF COLOMBIA AND N OF NW VENEZUELA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS WILL OCCASIONALLY BUILD TO 7-9 FT WHERE THE STRONGEST WINDS OCCUR. 1015 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRES ARE APPROACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS 55W INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...MOVING INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN THU...APPROACHING HISPANIOLA FRI MORNING...THEN ACROSS CUBA DURING THE WEEKEND. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS/SQUALLS/AND SCATTERED TSTMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE. SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 7-9 FT BEHIND THE WAVE N OF 15N WED...WITH MIXED NE AND SE SWELL OF 7-10 FT COVERING THE TROPICAL N ATLC THU...GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB-NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. OVERALL MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS CURRENTLY PREVAIL. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO GENTLE TO MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. NORTHERLY SWELL STILL ASSOCIATED WITH DISTANT AND DECAYING HURRICANE JOAQUIN CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA WITH 8-12 FT SEAS ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N. THESE SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...TO LESS THAN 8 FT BASIN WIDE BY THU MORNING. A SERIES OF TROUGHS CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH MAINLY THE NW HALF OF THE BASIN AROUND 1008 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 35.5N75W. THESE FEATURES ARE SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OFF OF THE CAROLINAS WHICH IS NOW BEGINNING TO MOVE OFF TO THE NE AFTER BEING NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THE FINAL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO STALL FROM NEAR 31N70W TO 28N80W BY THU AFTERNOON...THEN WILL LIFT BACK TO THE WNW THROUGH FRI BEFORE DISSIPATING OR MERGING WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SAT. THAT FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY SINK TO THE SE REACHING FROM 30N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY SUN MORNING. MEANWHILE A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 1019 MB HIGH PRES E OF THE AREA NEAR 25N56W TO THE SE BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.