000 AGXX40 KNHC 060753 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 339 AM EDT TUE OCT 6 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS MODEL BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. ENTIRE REGION CURRENTLY UNDER NORTHERLY WIND FLOW NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WLY SE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. EXPECT YET ANOTHER WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH TO ROTATE AROUND AN MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE W N ATLC NEAR 31N76W THAT WILL SWEEP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE THE LOW KICKS OUT NE OF THE AREA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN NE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CONUS DIPS S OVER THE W GULF WED THEN SHIFTING E THROUGH FRI ALLOWING MORE EASTERLY WINDS TO RETURN TO THE REGION. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS MODEL BLEND. HIGH CONFIDENCE. LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK RIDGE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. SOUTHERN TRAILING PORTIONS OF A SERIES OF FRONTAL TROUGHS ROTATING THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO MAY PUSH INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THE NEXT TWO DAYS WITH LITTLE EFFECT. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A MODERATE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING N OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI...WHICH IS STRENGTHENING THE TRADE WINDS AND ALLOWING A MORE NORMAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN TO RETURN TO THE REGION AFTER TROUGHING NORTH OF THE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N76W EXITS THE AREA TUE NIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 48W BETWEEN 10N-20N IS WELL DEPICTED IN GFS MODEL GUIDANCE OWING TO ITS DEEP LAYER CHARACTERISTICS...AND MODELS SHOW THE WAVE MOVING N-NW REACHING THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS EARLY WED THEN MOVING INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN EARLY THU THEN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS. EXPECT EASTERLY WIND SURGE AND INCREASE IN SHOWERS AS THE WAVE AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE N PORTION OF FORECAST AREA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS MODEL BLEND. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HURRICANE JOAQUIN WARNINGS...NOW WELL NE OF THE AREA. JOAQUIN CONTINUES TO MOVE NE AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE OUTER EFFECTS OF THE HURRICANE...INCLUDING FRESH TO STRONG WESTERLY WINDS AND LARGE NE SWELL...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH WED THEN WILL BE WELL N OF THE AREA. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N76W...EXTENDING THROUGH 31N75W ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA WILL PUSH EASTWARD N OF THE AREA. A SECOND REINFORCING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUE...REACHING FROM 31N77W TO 26N80W TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM 31N72W TO 25N80W BY WED NIGHT. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. HIGHEST WINDS WILL BE IN EXTREME NW PORTION OFF THE COAST OF NE FLORIDA. STRONG TO NEAR GALE WINDS ACROSS SC-GA COASTAL WATERS WILL GENERATE N-NE SWELL THAT WILL MOVE SWD TOWARD FL INTO COASTAL AND NEAR COASTAL WATERS...AND PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD TO W OF THE BAHAMAS AND SE FL WATERS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER PAW. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.