000 AGXX40 KNHC 050804 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 404 AM EDT MON OCT 5 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS GULF E OF 90W IS UNDER MODERATE N TO NW FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT SPIRALING FROM A LOW THAT IS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TRAILING A COLD FRONT SW ACROSS S FLORIDA TO S/CENTRAL GULF. SEAS ACROSS E PORTIONS 3-5 FT. W OF 90W RIDGING STARTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM TEXAS SWD ACROSS W PORTIONS AND WILL GRADUALLY BUILD S TO NEAR VERACRUZ NEXT 48 HRS. SEAS W HALF 2-4 FT IN LIGHT TO MODERATE N TO NE FLOW. CUT OFF UPPER LOW ACROSS E GULF AND SW N ATLC IS CENTERED OFF NE FLORIDA AND AND SUPPORTING CONTINUED MODEST CAA ACROSS N CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS OF GULF WHERE MODERATE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUE. MODELS ON REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING OF THIS SYSTEM WITH A SECONDARY FRONTAL TROUGH EXPECTED ACROSS NE PORTIONS INTO SE PORTIONS LATER TODAY AND STALLING ALONG N COAST OF YUCATAN TO EXTREME S FL BY TUE NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GRADUALLY VEERING WINDS ACROSS N AND NE PORTIONS WITH MAX SEAS WILL PERSISTING 4-5 FT 25N- 27N E OF 88W THROUGH WED. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WEAK RIDGING HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE NW CARIB IN THE WAKE OF EXITING JOAQUIN WITH SW WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO NW WINDS AND SEAS 1 TO 3 FT. RIDGING IS BUILDING IN FROM THE E ACROSS THE E CARIB AND TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE SE AND S/CENTRAL CARIB. THIS PRES GRADIENT WILL RETURN THE E TRADE WINDS AND CONTINUE INCREASING THE WINDS MODERATE TO STRONG ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA S OF 14N BETWEEN 68W-72W BY TONIGHT AND INCREASING THE SEAS TO 8 FT THROUGH WED. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIB AND TROPICAL ATLC...ELY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN TO AREA BY TODAY AS RIDGE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND LIFTS N TO ALONG 23N AND SEAS BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT IN MIXED SWELL. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AREA WED MORNING...WITH A CONSENSUS PROPAGATING MAJORITY OF WAVE ENERGY WWD AND INTO CARIB FOLLOWED BY A WIND SURGE. MODELS AGREE WITH A SHIFT TO N-NW AS WAVE PASSES 55W CLIPPING THE NE CARIB. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS HURRICANE WARNING JOAQUIN CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TO THE N-NE AND HAS WEAKEN...ALL WARNINGS NOW N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. TRANSLATION SPEED APPROACHING 20 KT WILL NOW ALLOW FOR TRAPPED FETCH WAVE GROWTH AND EXCEPTIONAL SEAS ACROSS THE SE SEMICIRCLE. CUT OFF UPPER LOW ACROSS NE GULF/SW N ATLC TRAILS TROUGH TO THE SW TRAILING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SW ACROSS S FLORIDA. E TO SE SWELL GENERATE FROM W PORTIONS OF JOAQUIN AND WIND FIELD OF FRONTAL ZONE OVER PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS MIXING WITH HURRICANE SWELL TO PRODUCE AND EXAGGERATED AND TREMENDOUS WAVE FIELD ACROSS THE SW SEMICIRCLE OF JOAQUIN...WHERE 12 FT SEAS ARE PRESENT ACROSS COASTAL WATERS OF CAROLINAS...AS WELL OFFSHORE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLUCTUATING 10-11 FT PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS AND SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH JOAQUIN ARE TO LIFT OUT OF AREA NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT WITH PRES GRADIENT TO THE N AND NW OF IT TO CONTINUE TO GENERATE NELY SWELL DIRECTED BACK AT NW WATERS AND SE U.S. COASTS THROUGH TUE. COMPLEX LOW AND FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS S CAROLINA AND NC COASTAL WATERS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN GULF SECTION WILL ROTATE CYCLONICALLY NEXT 24-48 HRS AND SWEEP A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE SE ACROSS NW PORTIONS AND FL...AND ALLOW STRONG TO NEAR GALE WARNING WINDS ACROSS SC-GA COASTAL WATERS TO GENERATE N-NE SWELL TO MOVE SWD TOWARD FL NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS...AND LIKELY W OF BAHAMAS AND INTO SE FL. STRONG SWLY FLOW TO DEVELOP TO SE OF ELONGATED TROUGHING AND FRONTAL ZONE DURING THIS TIME AND WILL INCREASE SEAS 8-10 FT NE ZONES TODAY THROUGH TUE NIGHT. OVERALL CONFUSED AND HIGH SEAS TO PREVAIL ACROSS NRN ZONES THROUGH EARLY WED. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER PAW. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.