000 AGXX40 KNHC 021840 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EDT FRI OCT 2 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ----------------------------------------------------------------- PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED LATEST TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM SOUTH FLORIDA SW TO THE SW GULF WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS W OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-6 FT RANGE W OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL FROM S FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TONIGHT WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SAT. LOW PRES OVER THE SE UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN TO DROP TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE MON WITH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW OF MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE NW WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE NE GULF INTO TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED LATEST TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO FRESH WINDS BETWEEN CUBA AND JAMAICA AS WELL AS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ASSOCIATED TO HURRICANE JOAQUIN IN THE SW N ATLC WATERS. OTHERWISE GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 5-7 FT RANGE JUST S OF CUBA AND 7-8 FT IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ELSEWHERE SEAS ARE 1-3 FT OVER THE W CARIBBEAN...2-4 FT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EAST CARIBBEAN...AND 4-5 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. HURRICANE JOAQUIN OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS HAS REPLACED THE RIDGE THAT IS TYPICALLY OVER THESE WATERS. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH IS PRODUCING WIND FLOW THAT IS WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THE WIND FLOW AROUND HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS RESULTING IN ANOMALOUS WINDS WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT OVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND VICINITY. WINDS WITH THIS WESTERLY COMPONENT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THIS AREA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS MODEL AND OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST FOR JOAQUIN USED FOR WINDS. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED LATEST TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WARNING JOAQUIN WAS CENTERED NEAR 23.5N 74.9W AT 1500 UTC OCT 02 WITH WINDS OF 115 KT AND GUSTS TO 140 KT. WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY HURRICANE JOAQUIN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH CYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TONIGHT. LARGE SEAS EXPANDING OUTWARD FROM JOAQUIN WILL AFFECT MUCH OF THE OF THE BASIN. JOAQUIN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT N OF THE AREA BY LATE SAT NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER FROM THE AREA...CONDITIONS WILL START TO IMPROVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE MOST RECENT ADVISORY FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT. HURRICANE WARNING SAT INTO SUN. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN. .AMZ115...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING SAT. HURRICANE WARNING SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... HURRICANE WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING SAT. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. HURRICANE WARNING TONIGHT INTO SAT. TROPICAL STORM WARNING SAT NIGHT. .AMZ121...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING SAT INTO SAT NIGHT. .AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LANDSEA/AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.