000 AGXX40 KNHC 011844 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 244 PM EDT THU OCT 1 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED LATEST TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO 27N90W AND 27N93W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE E CENTRAL COAST OF TEXAS. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING S BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING N-NE 15 KT WINDS WITH LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 KT...AND SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT. E OF THE FRONT...THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING NW WINDS OF 10-15 KT WITH SEAS OF 2-3 FT. THE COLD FRONT FRONT WILL REACH THE FAR SE GULF AND SLOW DOWN FRI AS IT CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATING THROUGH SAT. THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AROUND HURRICANE JOAQUIN CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL STILL AFFECT THE WIND FLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN GULF SAT AND SUN AS JOAQUIN LIFTS N. HOWEVER...LOW PRES WILL BEGIN TO DROPS S FROM GEORGIA TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE MON WITH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW OF MAINLY GENTLE NW WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE NE GULF INTO TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. FOR WAVE HEIGHTS USED LATEST TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT TO MODERATE OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN...2-3 FT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...1-2 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 4-6 FT IN NE SWELL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. THIS SWELL IS ORIGINATING FROM LOW PRES AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC REGION. HURRICANE JOAQUIN OVER THE SW N ATLC WATERS HAS REPLACED THE RIDGE THAT IS TYPICALLY OVER THESE WATERS. THIS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN A WEAKER PRES GRADIENT PRODUCING TRADE WIND FLOW THAT IS WELL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS. THE WIND FLOW AROUND HURRICANE WARNING JOAQUIN NEAR THE BAHAMAS IS RESULTING IN ANOMALOUS WINDS WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT OVER MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND VICINITY. IN ADDITION...WHAT APPEARS TO BE AN OUTER BAND FROM JOAQUIN HAS DEVELOPED OVER THAT PORTION OF THE SEA WITH LIGHTNING DENSITY DATA SHOWING NUMEROUS LIGHTNING WITHIN IT. THIS BAND IS ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY SW WINDS AND RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS DEPICTS THIS RAIN BAND LINGERING THROUGH FRI NIGHT...THEN IT APPEARS THAT IT BECOMES A NE TO SW TROUGH THAT SLOWLY MOVES SE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN REACHING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NEAR THE NE PART OF HONDURAS BY EARLY ON SUN. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST FOR JOAQUIN WINDS. USED LATEST TAFB NWPS WAVE PARAMETERS FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WARNING JOAQUIN WAS CENTERED NEAR NEAR 23.0N 73.9W AT 15 UTC WITH WINDS OF 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY HURRICANE WARNING JOAQUIN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH CYCLONIC WINDS ACROSS THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE SYSTEM. HURRICANE JOAQUIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THROUGH FRI...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN FRI NIGHT AS IT NEARS 25.2N 74.4W. SINCE JOAQUIN IS ALSO A LARGE HURRICANE...ITS IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE SEEN AS LARGE SEAS EXPANDING OUTWARD FROM IT AFFECTING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. SHIP "H3VU" REPORTED W WINDS OF 30 KT THIS MORNING BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AT A LOCATION OF 22N76W WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 19 FT. THIS HELPED WITH EXPANDING THE SW QUADRANT 12 FT RADII OF JOAQUIN. THE LATEST FORECAST ADVISORY HAS JOAQUIN LIFTING N OF THE AREA BY LATE SAT NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER FROM THE AREA...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO START TO IMPROVE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE MOST RECENT ADVISORY FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ113...ATLANTIC FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... HURRICANE WARNING FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. .AMZ117...BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAY SAL BANK... HURRICANE WARNING THROUGH FRI NIGHT. .AMZ119...ATLANTIC FROM 22N TO 27N E OF BAHAMAS TO 70W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING INTO TONIGHT. HURRICANE WARNING FRI INTO SAT. .AMZ123...ATLANTIC S OF 22N W OF 70W INCLUDING APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.. TROPICAL STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.