000 AGXX40 KNHC 230802 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 402 AM EDT WED SEP 23 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH REACHES FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING OVER THE EASTERN GULF TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF ALONG ROUGHLY 84W/85W. THIS WILL DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE TODAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST AND DE-AMPLIFIES. WEAK RIDGING N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE GULF REGION WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. LOOKING AHEAD... GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROUGH OR LOW PRES TO FORM OVER THE SW GULF OR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN POSITION AND INTENSITY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE POSSIBLE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT BY MON. THE GFS REMAINS A DECENT COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE WEAKER ECMWF AND MORE AGGRESSIVE UKMET. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST INCLUDING TAFB-NWPS. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS N OF THE AREA RESULTING IN FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT PULSING WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI...DRIFTING NW TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SAT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL OUTPUT REGARDING THE PRECISE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE TROUGH OR LOW PRES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT INDICATING INCREASED E TO SE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN INTO MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST INCLUDING TAFB-NWPS. A WEAK FRONT EXTENDS FROM 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 32N75W TO E CENTRAL FLORIDA. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COASTLINES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN THIS AREA AS WELL AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA.FRESH SWELL GENERATED BY THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING SEAS TO AT 8 FT TODAY TO THE WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA. THE SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH EARLY THU AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER NE AND WEAKENS. FARTHER SOUTH...A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MID WEEK. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.