000 AGXX40 KNHC 221748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 148 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO SE LOUISIANA WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH LATE TODAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING MAINLY THE WATERS N OF 26N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. A RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WHILE A WEAK PRES GRADIENT IS NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. UNDER THIS WEATHER PATTERN...MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF REGION WITH SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 4 FT. LOOKING AHEAD... GLOBAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROUGH OR LOW PRES TO FORM OVER THE SW GULF OR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN POSITION AND INTENSITY. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE POSSIBLE INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT BY MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST INCLUDING TAFB-NWPS. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE PERSISTS N OF THE AREA RESULTING IN FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG TRADES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS AND A SHIP OBSERVATION CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF 20-25 KT WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT PULSING WINDS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 8 FT. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN AND MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH MID WEEK. LOOKING AHEAD...SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NW CARIBBEAN FRI...DRIFTING NW TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON SAT. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL OUTPUT REGARDING THE PRECISE POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE TROUGH OR LOW PRES LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT INDICATING INCREASED E TO SE WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUN INTO MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: OFFICIAL FORECAST INCLUDING TAFB-NWPS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRES CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR 33.5N73W TO 27N79W. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED THE WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AXIS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WED...THEN DRIFT W THROUGH THU NIGHT. AS THE LOW PRES MOVES WESTWARD...EXPECT INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE FAR NW PART OF THE FORECAST REGION LATE TODAY THROUGH WED NIGHT. CURRENTLY...MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WINDS OF 20-25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS OF 6-8 FT. FARTHER SOUTH...A WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WATERS. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS INDICATE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST E OF THE BAHAMAS THROUGH MID WEEK. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.