000 AGXX40 KNHC 151849 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 249 PM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS DIGGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF. A WEAK LOW PRES AREA THAT HAS BEEN MOSTLY STATIONARY OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF HAS MOVED ASHORE JUST TO THE NORTH OF TAMPICO MEXICO. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL CONTINUE INLAND AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH THROUGH TONIGHT. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BECOMING DIFFUSE FROM SW FLORIDA TO THE FAR NW GULF. THIS WILL BE COMPLETELY DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN INVERTED TROUGH MOVING WEST ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE S CENTRAL GULF FRI...BRINGING FRESH EASTERLY WINDS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-6 FT TO THE NE GULF WED. IN ADDITION...THE INTERACTION OF THIS MOIST TROUGH WITH THE SHORT WAVE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WILL ALLOW AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WED. THE GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE THE THE TROUGH WILL STALL AND ELONGATE FROM THE NE GULF THROUGH THE SW GULF THU AND FRI...POSSIBLY WITH WEAK LOW PRES AREA FORMING ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS. THE LATEST UKMET IS SIMILAR BUT MORE AGGRESSIVE SHOWING A DEEPER AND MORE DISTINCT LOW FORMING OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY FRI. THE 12Z ECMWF REMAINS WEAKER HOWEVER...WITH A LESS AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THE GFS AS A GOOD COMPROMISE AND MAINTAINS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A TROPICAL WAVE REACHING FROM EASTERN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS TO WESTERN CUBA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND EARLY WED. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE REACHING FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO CENTRAL VENEZUELA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLC ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES...MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG FLOW ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN STARTING WED...ALLOWING THE TRADE WIND FLOW TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A STALL AND WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY 31N67W TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE FRONT. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE NOTED IN A 15 UTC ASCAT PASS...NOT AS STRONG AS EARLIER IN THE MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A INVERTED TROUGH MOVING WESTWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THE RIDGE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST AHEAD OF WEAK LOW PRES MOVING OFF CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE WATERS OFF NE FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEAVING GENERALLY MODERATE EAST FLOW VEERING SE TO S THROUGH THE WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.