000 AGXX40 KNHC 150721 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 321 AM EDT TUE SEP 15 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WITH MANUAL EDITS. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE W-NW INTO THE SW GULF WATERS DURING THE EVENING THROUGH LATE NIGHT HOURS...THEN DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING. THE STRONGER GFS SEEMS REASONABLE HERE THROUGH WED...BUT CONFIDENCE LOWERS AS LOW PRES DEEPENS N-NE OF THE AREA WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT. WINDS WERE INCREASED SLIGHTLY OVER THE OPERATIONAL MODEL. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM NAPLES FLORIDA THROUGH 25N87W TO 28N95W. THE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PULLS NORTHEASTWARD. 1013 MB LOW PRES LINGERING OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO MEXICO IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW AND ONSHORE BY TONIGHT. THE LAST SCATTEROMETER PASS...A 1634 UTC ASCAT-B PASS...SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE E SEMICIRCLE. THESE WINDS SHOULD BE DIMINISHING. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS THE BEST ANALYSIS HERE. IT SHOWS WINDS LESS THAN 25 KT FROM 06Z ONWARD. MANUAL EDITS WERE MADE TOWARD ITS SOLUTION. THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE GULF WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED BY WED AS A SHARP TROUGH PUSHES W INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. AT THE SURFACE...THE MODELS VARY WITH POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH ALL OF THE MODELS SHOWING THE TROUGHING STRETCHING NE INTO THE ATLC FRI INTO SAT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ANY ONE SOLUTION. THE MANUAL PROGS SHOW A N TO S TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY TUE NIGHT THAT SHOULD MIGRATE W TO AROUND 88W BY THU BEFORE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY E ON FRI. THIS IS GENERALLY A BLEND OF THE STRONGER GFS AND THE WEAKER ECMWF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 00Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 0248Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED A SOLID AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA BEHIND THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 82W. THE GFS WAS THE BEST INITIALIZED WITH THE WINDS HERE. IT WAS USED EARLY IN THE PERIOD FOR ADJUSTING THE GRIDS. THE MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGING N OF THE AREA DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS THROUGH WED. AFTER THIS TIME...THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNSURE. THE GFS DEVELOPS STRONGER THROUGHING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SW N ATLC THAN THE ECMWF. REGARDLESS...THE WEAKER RIDGING TO THE N WILL WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. WINDS AND SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED ADVISORY CRITERIA ANYWHERE BY FRI AND SAT. THE GFS FORECAST IS AS GOOD AS ANY HERE. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL. NWPS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FOR WAVES. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON CARRYING A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT BEFORE DIMINISHING THE WINDS AS THE RIDGE N OF THE AREA IS WEAKENED. THE GFS SEEMS FINE HERE. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM 31N70W TO HOBE SOUND FLORIDA. THE PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY S OF 30N WILL DISSIPATE TODAY WHILE THE REMAINDER PUSHES E AS A COLD FRONT. RIDGING N OF THE AREA WILL DOMINATE THE FLOW ELSEWHERE. AS STATED ABOVE...THE MODELS VARY WITH POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WITH ALL OF THE MODELS SHOWING THE TROUGHING STRETCHING NE INTO THE ATLC FRI INTO SAT. THE ECMWF IS MORE AGREESSIVE THAN THE GFS WITH DEVELOPING A LOW PRES SYSTEM N OF THE BAHAMAS BY EARLY SAT. CONFIDENCE IS LOW. THE GFS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE PROGS WITH SOME EDITS TOWARD A SLIGHTLY STRONGER CIRCULATION. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER SCHAUER. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.