000 AGXX40 KNHC 011852 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 252 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. TAFB NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE REMNANT TROUGH OF ERIKA IS REACHES FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE CENTRAL GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FLARING ALONG THE TROUGH N OF 26N E OF 85W. THIS CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO WED AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY DISSIPATES THROUGH LATE WED. FARTHER WEST A SHARP UPPER TROUGH REACHES FROM MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO SOUTH TEXAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE NW GULF EAST OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO WED. LIGHT WINDS AND 2 TO 4 FT SEAS PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF CURRENTLY. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD HIGH PRES WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE NE GULF...MAINTAINING THE LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES AND MODEST SEAS OVER MOST OF THE GULF. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE A TROUGH WILL FORM EACH EVENING...TEMPORARILY ALLOWING MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 14 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 KT TRADE WINDS OFF COLOMBIA...SLIGHTLY LESS THAN 12 UTC GFS INITIALIZATIONS. A CONCURRENT ALTIMETER PASS INDICATED SEAS 8 TO 9 FT OFF COLOMBIA. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...SUPPRESSING TRADE WIND DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT OFF COLOMBIA. TRADE WINDS WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THEREAFTER AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WITH SEAS TO 9 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH 55W BY EARLY FRI...MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY EARLY SAT AND INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SUN. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FRESH E WINDS OFF THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH 4 TO 6 FT SEAS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS DECENT AGREEMENT AMONG MAJOR MODELS WITH THIS TREND...THE GFS IS SHOWING LOCALLY STRONG E WINDS SAT NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. 1021 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 30N68W IS MAINTAINING LIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZES ACROSS THE WATERS N OF 25N...AND GENERALLY MODERATE TRADES S OF 25N. BUOY AND ALTIMETER DATA SHOW SEAS ONLY 3 TO 4 OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A MODEST INCREASE IN WINDS OVERNIGHT OFF THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...BUT LIMITED TO 20 KT. THE GENERAL FORECAST TREND IS FOR A TROUGH TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN ATLC OFF THE EAST COAST THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD 30N...DISPLACING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTHWARD TO 23N BY FRI. WHILE SOME DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH THE POSITION AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CAUSE WINDS TO VEER MORE SOUTH TO SW OVER WATERS N OF 25N WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WIND SPEED OR WAVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.