000 AGXX40 KNHC 261841 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 241 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH SAT...THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W TO THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST. THE FRONT MAY SHIFT EAST A LITTLE THROUGH THU...BUT THEN BECOME DIFFUSE THROUGH FRI. A TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER S FLORIDA INTO THE SE GULF...SUPPORTING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN FAIRLY SUBDUED ACROSS THE GULF...WITH LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED THROUGH SAT. THE MAIN ISSUE FOR SUN AND MON WILL BE THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA...NOW EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF ERIKA AS IT MOVES WNW TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. AS FOR THE TRACK...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT SHOWING THE AREA IMPACTED BY ERIKA REMAINING EAST OF THE GULF THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES REGARDING THE INTENSITY OF ERIKA. AT ANY RATE...IT IS PLAUSIBLE TO EXPECT FRESH OR EVEN STRONG NE WINDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN GULF MON AS ERIKA MAKES ITS CLOSET POINT OF APPROACH TO THE EAST. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE CARIBBEAN... LOW TO MEDIUM TROPICAL N ATLC. TROPICAL STORM WARNING ERIKA IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO SKIRT ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THU...MOVING OVER OR JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THU AND THU NIGHT...THEN NEAR OR N OF HISPANIOLA FRI. FOR NOW THE MAIN IMPACTS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT FOR THE NE CARIBBEAN AND OF COURSE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC N OF 14N. ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IS DISPLACED FARTHER NORTH IN RESPONSE TO THE REMNANTS OF DANNY MOVING ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR A PERIOD OF RELATIVE LIGHT TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THIS IS NOTED IN A 14 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWING ONLY MODERATE FLOW OFF NE COLOMBIA AND 10 TO 15 KT REPORTS FROM THE ABC ISLANDS. THE LATEST GFS RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS INDICATING A BRIEF RETURN TO FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MAINLY OFF NE COLOMBIA...TONIGHT DUE TO RIDGING FOLLOWING IN THE WAKE OF THE REMNANT TROUGH OF DANNY. THIS WEAKENS THU AS ERIKA MOVES WNW KEEPING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE DISPLACED. ELSEWHERE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN DIMINISHED. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N70W TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE THIS EVENING AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING BUILDS ALONG 29N/30N. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE-S WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN W OF 65W ALONG WITH 3-6 FT SEAS OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST OFF NE FLORIDA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.A 13 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF AMZ127...NORTH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT MOVES WNW TO THE NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES TOWARD THE SE BAHAMAS...REACHING HURRICANE STRENGTH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT NEARS THE NW BAHAMAS AND SE FLORIDA. WHILE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF SYSTEM...AT LEAST THROUGH SAT...THERE REMAINS SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO THE INTENSITY OF ERIKA. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO THU. .AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TODAY INTO TONIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... .AMZ125...ATLANTIC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W INCLUDING PUERTO RICO TRENCH... TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU NIGHT INTO FRI. .AMZ127...ATLANTIC FROM 19N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING THU. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.