000 AGXX40 KNHC 250730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT TUE AUG 25 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES 1016 MB IS LOCATED IN THE NW GULF NEAR 27N92W WITH A COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING THE N CENTRAL GULF FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 31N85W TO NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER AT 29.5N94W. A BAND OF TSTMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. OUTSIDE OF THE AREA OF CONVECTION LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND 1-3 FT SEAS ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN EARLY THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR APALACHEE BAY FLORIDA TO 27.5N90W TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON BAY THIS EVENING...FROM 30N83W TO 26N90W TO 28N97W WED MORNING...THEN WILL STALL FROM 30N83W TO 25N90W TO 28N96W BY WED EVENING WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH FRI MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT WILL THEN DRIFT BACK TO THE NW THROUGH SAT...DISSIPATING ACROSS THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF SAT EVENING. LIGHT TO MODERATE N-NE WINS AND 2-3 FT SEAS ARE EXPECTED W OF THE FRONT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND SEAS OF 1 FT OR LESS E OF THE FRONT. THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DANNY ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS A TROUGH/TROPICAL WAVE FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REACHING 85W SAT MORNING...THEN REACHING 88W SUN MORNING. EXPECT LIGHT TO MODERATE NE WINDS AHEAD OF THE WAVE SHIFTING TO THE E-SE IN ITS WAKE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. HIGH CONFIDENCE CARIBBEAN... LOW TO MEDIUM TROPICAL N ATLC. THE REMNANTS OF DANNY ARE LOCATED NEAR 16N65.6W 1010 MB AS OF 06 UTC OR ABOUT 100-110 NM SE-S OF PUERTO RICO. ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS LOCATED BETWEEN 90-240 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE REMNANTS MOVING ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND APPROACHING EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THE REMNANTS ARE FORECAST TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH OR REMNANT TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE CONTINUE OFF TO THE NW. LIGHT NE-E WINDS PREVAIL IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH MAINLY MODERATE TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE FRESH TRADES PREVAIL...UP TO STRONG NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. LITTLE CHANGE IN THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WED NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT (TUE NIGHT)...APPROACHING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WED AFTERNOON...THEN MOVING NEAR OR N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WITH BUILDING SEAS IN THE E CARIBBEAN WELL OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE INFLUENCE OF ERIKA DUE TO RIDGING WHICH WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF ERIKA WITH A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT SETTING UP. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO FRESH TO STRONG IN THE E CARIBBEAN FRI NIGHT...SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY SAT MORNING AND PERSISTING INTO SUN MORNING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS/OFFICIAL FORECAST...OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR ERIKA WITH HAND EDITS. NWPS USED FOR WAVE PARAMETERS. LOW TO MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A PESKY TROUGH LINGERS ACROSS THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM NEAR 30N66W TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 45-60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE TODAY AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING REGAINS CONTROL OF THE BASIN. LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND 3-6 FT SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN...EXCEPT NEAR THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA WHERE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED FRESH WINDS. RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW IS FORECAST TO PREVAIL LATER TODAY THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. FORECAST CONFIDENCE GOES DOWN HILL AS ERIKA APPROACHES THE SE PORTION OF THE BASIN LATE TONIGHT (TUE NIGHT). THE LATEST FORECAST TAKES ERIKA NEAR OR JUST N OF THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS THU... APPROACHING THE TURKS AND CAICOS FRI...THEN POTENTIALLY IMPACTING THE SE BAHAMAS SAT. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH REMAINS BUT AT THE VERY LEAST EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS FROM SE TO NW BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ025...OFFSHORE WATERS LEEWARD ISLANDS... TROPICAL STORM WARNING WED NIGHT. .AMZ027...TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W... TROPICAL STORM WARNING TONIGHT INTO WED NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LEWITSKY. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.