000 AGXX40 KNHC 180606 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 206 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. A THERMALLY INDUCED TROUGH HAS MOVED OFF THE YUCATAN COAST INTO THE SW GULF. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY...AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF WHERE THERE IS A LOCALLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE TROUGH. ELSEWHERE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL. SEAS ARE IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND 1-2 FT OVER THE EASTERN GULF. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH SAT. ALSO EXPECT A REGULAR PATTERN OF A THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPING EACH EVENING OVER THE YUCATAN MOVING W INTO THE SW GULF AT NIGHT...THEN DISSIPATING OVER THE SW GULF EACH MORNING TO CONTINUE THROUGH SAT. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...AND LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...5-6 FT OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...3-5 FT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...2-3 FT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...AND 4-6 FT OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TODAY. THE WAVE WILL PROPAGATE ACROSS THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LITTLE AFFECT ON WINDS AND SEAS. A TROPICAL LOW SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE WILL APPROACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE FRI OR SAT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM MAY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE FORECAST AREA. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH ECMWF FOR WINDS AND SEAS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. LATEST SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND SEAS ALONG WITH SHIP...BUOY... AND CMAN DATA DEPICT GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS. SEAS ARE IN THE 4-5 FT RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN WATERS...3-4 FT OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS...AND 1-3 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD MIDWEEK AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING MID- LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S. WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS THU. THE LOW WILL THEN LINGER OVER THE NE WATERS THROUGH SAT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AL. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.