000 AGXX40 KNHC 101801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 201 PM EDT MON AUG 10 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WEAK HIGH PRES REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON ANCHORED BY A 1014 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N92W THAT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING...A BROAD AND WEAK 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 27N87W. SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR NAPLES INTO THE LOW...THEN W-NW TO THE LOUISIANA COAST NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY. ONGOING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WEST OF THE LOW FROM 24N-29N BETWEEN 88W- 92W. OUTSIDE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE HIGH THEN WNW TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN WITH SEAS RANGING IN THE 1-3 FT RANGE. A SMALL POCKET OF 3-4 FT SEAS ARE NOTED IN THE SW OFF S OF 22N BETWEEN 90W-94W. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE THROUGH THU. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NE AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE HEIGHT OF THE ACTIVITY POSSIBLY ON WED NIGHT INTO THU AS A WEAK FRONT EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION TO GALVESTON BAY THAT DRIFTS SOUTHWARD AND WEAKENS ALONG 27N/28N ON FRI AND SAT. FINALLY...A THERMAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND MOVE WNW DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEREAFTER THE TROUGHING WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE SW GULF DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS AND SEAS OF 3-4 FT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH MAINLY IN THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. WITH THE PRESENCE OF A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC AND CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING INFLUENCE PUSHED FARTHER NE...GENERALLY MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADES ARE NOTED ACROSS THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN AND 4-6 FT RANGE ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG TRADES FROM 11N- 14N BETWEEN 70W-77W GENERATING SEAS 6-8 FT. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH FRI. A TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES ALONG 57W WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT...AND MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT LATE INTO TUE...THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TUE AND TUE NIGHT...AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WED AND WED NIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED FROM THIS WAVE...HOWEVER SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY CURRENTLY NOTED S OF 14N WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE WILL MOST LIKELY BRING INCREASED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY TO THE WINDWARD ISLAND TONIGHT INTO TUE. GUSTY WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WINDS. 12Z MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR WAVE HEIGHTS. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT FEATURES ANALYZED OVER THE AREA REMAIN ON THE RELATIVELY WEAK SIDE. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM 27N65W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT IS NOTED TO THE NORTH OF THE AXIS ACROSS THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA FROM 31N71W INTO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 30N76W TO 25N79W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED EAST OF THE FRONT FROM 29N74W TO 24N78W. BOTH BOUNDARIES ARE PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARIES. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A REMNANT TUTT FEATURE CONTINUES TO WEAK IN THE VICINITY OF 25N62W WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OCCURRING FROM 24N-31N BETWEEN 62W-71W. UPPER LEVEL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THE FEATURE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOW MOSTLY GENTLE TO OCCASIONAL MODERATE BREEZE CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. SEAS REMAIN AT RATHER LOW STATES WITH WAVE HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 3-5 FT...EXCEPT FOR LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT W OF THE BAHAMAS AND N OF THE BAHAMAS W OF 78W. THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THU BEFORE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY N THROUGH FRI NIGHT BASED ON MODEL CONSENSUS. THE STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NW PORTION WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NW PORTION WED NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING TO A TROUGH THROUGH FRI. ELSEWHERE...NE TO E WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA TUE NIGHT...AND DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WED AFTERNOON...THEN PULSE BACK AGAIN TO 20-25 KT EACH NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT WITH SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 8 FT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER HUFFMAN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.