000 AGXX40 KNHC 251718 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 118 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN INVERTED THERMAL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THEN MOVE W-NW ACROSS THE SW GULF WATERS...GENERALLY TO THE S OF 22N BETWEEN 90-93W... DURING THE EVENING THROUGH LATE NIGHT HOURS...REACHING ALONG 94- 95W DURING THE EARLY DAYLIGHT HOURS...AND THEN DISSIPATING BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT ONLY ACCOMPANIED BY A NE TO E 15-20 KT WIND SHIFT WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND FROM W CUBA NW TO THE NE TX COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH A SURFACE HIGH DEVELOPING INTERMITTENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS ALONG THE RIDGE. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NE GULF WATERS TONIGHT AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH MON WITH UPPER SUPPORT FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED TSTMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. EXPECT A WEAK LOW TO MOVE W-SW ACROSS N-CENTRAL FL INTO THE NE GULF BRIEFLY LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN ON MON NIGHT INTO TUE. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: PRIMARILY GFS WITH LOW PERCENTAGE OF ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. ATLC RIDGE N OF THE AREA COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NW COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...INCREASING TO NEAR GALE WITHIN 150 NM OF THE COLOMBIAN COAST EACH NIGHT...EXCEPT MINIMAL GALE CONDITIONS TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON MON NIGHT. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE SE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE W AT ABOUT 18 KT REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON TUE AND THE W CARIBBEAN ON TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT. A CLUSTER OF TS WILL PASS THROUGH THE WINDWARDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL BE DEPICTED ALONG THE FORECAST WAVE POSITIONS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS THROUGH SUN. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH ALONG 55W ON SUN NIGHT AND ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN ON MON NIGHT. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS/ECMWF BLEND. TAFB NWPS USED FOR SEAS HEIGHTS AND PRIMARY WAVE PERIOD WITH MANUAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MATCH OBSERVATIONS MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 27N55W TO N-CENTRAL CUBA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT N TO POSITION FROM 26N55W TO 25N80W ON MON- TUE...THEN EXTEND FROM 28N55W TO 27N70W TO 26N80W ON WED-THU. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N73W TO 30N81W WILL STALL FROM 31N76W TO PORT CANAVERAL FL EARLY SUN. GUIDANCE AGREES ON A VERY WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT...WITH THE LOW MOVING W-SW AND INLAND FL ON SUN...THEN DRIFTING AND GRADUALLY LOSING IDENTITY ON MON INTO TUE. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION WILL BE DEPICTED IN THE THE WEATHER GRIDS... OTHERWISE EXPECT SW WINDS AT 15...MAYBE 20 KT... WITHIN ABOUT 240 NM SE OF THE FRONT ON SUN-MON. MODERATE E-SE TRADES ARE OBSERVED S OF THE RIDGE...EXCEPT INCREASING TO FRESH ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC APPROACH TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EACH EVENING BEGINNING ON SUN EVENING. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT...AND POSSIBLE GALE WARNING ON MON NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER NELSON. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.