000 AGXX40 KNHC 231835 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE TEXAS COAST NEAR GALVESTON. OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA INDICATE LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT FOR PATCHES MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS S OF 27N W OF 90W. MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE RIDGE AXIS HOLDING IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL SHIFT SOUTHWARD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND FROM W CUBA TO NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFFSHORE THE SE US OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND DRIFTING SOUTHWARD OVER THE W ATLC WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THIS LOW AND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH A PRE- FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ENTER THE NE GULF ON SATURDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE NE GULF SATURDAY...AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MODERATE NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OR ITS REMNANTS AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF WATERS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE N OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PERSIST ELSEWHERE. A TROPICAL WAVE THAT EXTENDS FROM NE COLOMBIA TO NEAR HAITI WILL MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE W CARIBBEAN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN WILL TIGHTEN AFTER THE TROPICAL WAVE PASSES TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL RESULT IN NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS TO 12 FEET BY FRIDAY NIGHT OFF THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON SUNDAY. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS BLEND WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A NEARLY STATIONARY RIDGE AXIS PREVAILS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SFC OBS INDICATE THAT MAINLY GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE S OF 29N WITH MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS N OF 29 E OF 75W. THESE STRONGER WINDS ARE A RESULT OF A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION AND THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE SOUTH. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IN THE FORM OF A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM THE SE FL COAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS. THIS CONVECTION PRODUCING TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE SE US COAST INTO THE W ATLC TONIGHT AND DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OFFSHORE THE FL/GA ATLC COASTS THROUGH SUNDAY. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND NE OF THE LOW...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SW OF THE LOW. MODERATE TO FRESH SW WINDS ARE FORECAST WITHIN A FEW HUNDRED NM OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET AND CONVECTION WILL BE ALSO BE LIKELY WITHIN THIS SAME AREA...WHICH WILL INCLUDE THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEGINNING SATURDAY. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO/CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.