000 AGXX40 KNHC 091724 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 124 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND THE 06Z GFS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... WHICH INCLUDED A SMALL BLEND OF THE ECMWF FOR WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS FOR WAVES. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH FRI NIGHT AND THEN WILL SLIDE WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL GULF ON SAT AND THEN THE NW GULF ON SUN. SURFACE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER FL ON SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. GENTLE TO MODERATE E TO SE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NW AND S GULF THROUGH FRI WITH THE WINDS ACROSS THESE SECTIONS OF THE GULF DECREASING TO MAINLY GENTLE OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS OVER THE NW GULF WILL BE GENTLE AND VARIABLE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE VICINITY...BECOMING NW OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE HIGH MOVES W. A WEAK TROUGH WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE W COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EACH EVENING...MOVING W EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING...AND THEN DISSIPATING IN THE SW GULF EACH DAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF WILL PRODUCE A FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE ALONG THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH IN THE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SAT. MODELS INDICATE THAT CURRENT CONVECTION OVER THE SW GULF DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND THE 06Z GFS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... WHICH INCLUDED A SMALL BLEND OF THE ECMWF FOR WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS FOR WAVES. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 31N69W AND LOWER PRESSURES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA IS GENERATING FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PRIMARILY OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE HIGH N OF THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SW TO NEAR 29N75W ON FRI BEFORE DISSIPATING AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING EXPANDS WESTWARD ON SUN. THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WILL MIGRATE W THROUGH FRI THEN SHRINK BACK TO THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO THE SHIFT IN THE HIGH OVER THE ATLC. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH A PORTION OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS WILL MOVE INLAND TODAY...WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 78W WILL EXIT THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FRI. CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRI. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: BLEND THE 06Z GFS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST... WHICH INCLUDED A SMALL BLEND OF THE ECMWF FOR WIND. BLEND OF OFFICIAL FORECAST WITH TAFB NWPS FOR WAVES. MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE. HIGH PRES NEAR 31N69 WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SW TO NEAR 29N75W ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS TO ITS E. THE HIGH WILL THEN DISSIPATE ON SUN WITH CENTRAL ATLC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING AN AXIS WESTWARD OVER THE W ATLC ON MON. TROUGHING OVER THE SE US WILL DIG SOUTHWARD OVER FL SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. WITH THE W ATLC RIDGE AXIS NEAR 29N TODAY THROUGH FRI...MODERATE E TO SE TRADES S OF 25N ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO FRI...WITH FRESH WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER THE WESTERN ATLC HIGH WEAKENS THIS WEEKEND AND THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING EXPANDS WESTWARD...THE W ATLC RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO RESIDE ALONG 25N OVER THE W ATLC MON AND TUE. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER LATTO. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.