000 AGXX40 KNHC 240822 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 422 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS WEAK RIDGE WILL LINGER OVER THE NE AND N CENTRAL GULF TODAY THEN SHIFT S ACROSS THE E GULF TO NEAR 27N THU AND TO 26N FRI AND TO 25N SAT. LLVL INVERTED TROUGH HAS SHIFTED WNW INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS PAST 12 HRS PRODUCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE SCT MODERATE CNVTN. THIS MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SHIFT WNW INTO W CENTRAL PORTIONS TODAY. H7 AXIS OF A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING CENTRAL AMERICA ATTM WILL MOVE WWD ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY AND COME IN SYNCH WITH DIURNAL THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS YUCATAN AND EXIT INTO BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT THROUGH THU. TRAILING LOWER TROPOSPHERIC JET OT 25-30 KT WILL AFFECT YUCATAN AND SW PORTIONS INTO SAT FOR PULSING EPISODES OF STRONG CNVTN SW PORTIONS. LINGERING UPPER TROFFING ACROSS THE W HALF OF GULF SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROVIDE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE ACROSS THE BASIN AS RIDGE SINKS SLOWLY S WITH EXCEPTION THE DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT ALONG N AND W COASTAL SECTIONS OF YUCATAN EACH DAY...WHERE WINDS COULD INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS TO AROUND 5 FT EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED ALONG 28N-29N AND WILL MAINTAIN STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADES ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ELSEWHERE ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL PORTIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH WE HAVE NO CONFIRMATION...PEAK WINDS OFF COLOMBIA ATTM ARE ASSUMED TO HAVE REACHED 40 KT...WHILE BUOY 42058 FLUCTUATING 11-13 FT PAST FEW HOURS. WW3 SEEMS TO BE VERIFYING FAIRLY WELL ACROSS THE BROAD BASIN BY LIKELY LOW BY 2 FT OR SO OFF OF COLOMBIA. STRONG AND COMPLEX TROPICAL WAVE HAS RACED ACROSS THE BASIN PAST 2 DAYS AND H7 AXIS NOW ENTERING CENTRAL AMERICA WHERE DEEP CNVTN FIRING ALONG NE COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS TODAY AS WAVE MOVES WWD AND STRONG TRADES SPREAD INTO NICARAGUAN COAST. NRN PORTIONS OF THIS WAVE HAVE SHEARED OFF TO THE N AND NE AND EXTEND FROM SW PORTIONS NE ACROSS JAMAICA AND ACROSS ATLC WATERS WELL N OF HISPANIOLA AND ARE NOW SEPARATE FEATURES. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W AND A MUCH LOWER LAT WAVE THAN PREVIOUS WAVE. THIS WAVE CONTINUE TO RACE WWD AND REACH 74W THIS EVENING...80W THU EVENING...AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA FRI AND FRI NIGHT. STRONG AEJ ALSO ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE AND WILL FOLLOW WAVE3 INTO W AND NW PORTIONS FRI THROUGH FRI NIGHT FOR STRONG FORCING. GALES EXPECTED TO PULSE EACH OF NEXT SEVERAL NIGHTS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...BROAD ZONE OF SAL MOVING INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF NEXT LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVE ALONG 45W ATTM. LONG FETCH OF AROUND 20 KT WITH AREAS TO 25 KT ACCOMPANYING THESE PAST 2 WAVES HAS GENERATED A LARGER AREA OF 8 FT SEAS THAN MODELS HAVE DEPICTED...AND WAVE CONTINUE HAVE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE SEAS ACROSS THIS AREA. BUOY 41098 IN COASTAL WATERS OF MARTINIQUE HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING 8-9 FT HAS FEW HOURS...WHILE 42060 HAS BEEN 7-8 FT IN ELY SWELL BLEEDING THROUGH THE ISLANDS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH NEXT 24-36 HOURS THEN INCREASE MODESTLY BEHIND NEXT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ARE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS ATLC RIDGE REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING WWD ALONG 28N-29N TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS...AND WILL LINGER THROUGH SAT BEFORE HIGH BEGINS TO SHIFT WWD AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY. THE N PORTIONS OF THE STRONG TROPICAL WAVE MOVING INTO CENTRAL AMERICA ARE ACROSS SE PORTIONS AND UNDERNEATH THE WEAKENED UPPER LOW N OF HISPANIOLA ATTM. MODELS INDICATE THAT LLVL MOISTURE AND ENERGY THERE WILL PROPAGATE WNW INTO CENTRAL BAHAMAS THROUGH WED AND REACH 80W BY THU. LIGHT TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC SFC FLOW TO PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD WITH FRESH TRADES S OF 22N ACROSS SE PORTIONS REMAINING E OF 76W THROUGH FRI. DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT ALONG N COAST OF HISPANIOLA MAY REACH NEAR 30 KT AND SEAS 7-9 FT EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ATLC HIGH SHIFTS W AND OPENS UP ALONG W PORTIONS FRI INTO SAT WITH INCREASING S TO SW FLOW CENTRAL AND NE COASTAL WATERS AND OFFSHORE WATERS...AHEAD OF AN E COAST FRONTAL SYSTEM. WINDS THERE MAY REACH 25 KT BY SAT AFTERNOON-EVENING AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.