000 AGXX40 KNHC 211820 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS A 1020 MB HIGH PERSISTS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N86.5W THIS MORNING YIELDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS E OF 90W AND MODERATE E TO SE WINDS W OF 90W. PLATFORMS ARE REPORTING SEAS OF 1-2 FT E OF 90W AND 2-4 FT N OF 27N W OF 90W AND 4-5 FT S OF 27N W OF 90W...AND A 6 FT SEA REPORTED AT BUOY 42055. THIS PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUE BEFORE HIGH COLLAPSES AND WEAK RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS SLIGHTLY N ACROSS THE NE GULF COASTAL WATERS AS ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS VERY WEAKLY ACROSS FLORIDA AND CONNECTS WITH NE GULF. DIURNALLY INDUCED NE JET PREVAILS ACROSS THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH SFC WINDS OF 15-20 KT LOCALLY. UPPER LOW TO SPIN ACROSS YUCATAN THROUGH TUE BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT NW WED AND INDUCE INSTABILITY CENTRAL PORTIONS. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES ATTM IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG AEJ THAT WILL MOVE INTO YUCATAN WED WITH ACTIVE WEATHER LIKELY TO SHIFT W AND NW OFF OF THE YUCATAN WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ACROSS SW PORTIONS WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N38W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 29N/30N TO THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE TAIL OF WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSING 30N ALONG ABOUT 60W PROVIDES THE ONLY INTERRUPTION IN THE RIDGE. NONETHELESS THE RIDGE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGE AND LOWER PRESSURE IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN STRONG TRADES BETWEEN 69W- 79W AND NOCTURNAL GALE WARNINGS OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. SUCCESSIVE 1414 AND 1500 UTC ASCAT A/B PASSES DEPICTED 25-30 KT WINDS IN A BELT ABOUT 90 NMI FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST BRIEF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE AREA AROUND 00Z-0Z TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY WEAKER MON NIGHT/TUE BEFORE RETURNING TUE NIGHT/WED...AND SUBSEQUENT NIGHTS THROUGH FRI. BUOY 42058 HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING 9-10 FT SINCE THIS MORNING AND CURRENTLY 9 FT. WITH WW3 PROBABLY DOING REASONABLE JOB WITH WAVE FIELD ACROSS SW AND S CENTRAL CARIB. STRONG EARLY SEASON TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57W/58W IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG AEJ. AXIS OF WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY WWD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE TONIGHT...ACROSS ERN CARIB MON THEN REACH ALONG ABOUT 73W BY WED. WAVE MOISTURE AND ENERGY EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH UPPER LOW DOMINATING NE CARIB REGION...WHICH HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DRIFT WWD. A FAVORABLE INTERACTION SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED SQUALLS AND TSTMS ACROSS LEEWARDS AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING THEN SHIFT NW INTO VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MON NIGHT. GFS AND ECMWF HINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR WAVE TO SPLIT ACROSS NE CARIB WITH GOOD PORTION SHIFTING NW AND MISSING PR AREA AND MOVING INTO ATLC. WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY MON NIGHT AND NOT AS NOTED ABOVE...SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND WAVE PASSAGE TUE NIGHT THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK TO SIGNIFICANTLY BUILD SEAS ACROSS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS...AND BRING A RETURN TO NOCTURNAL GALE WARNINGS OFF OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT. GIVEN FORECAST STRENGTH OF 925 MB WINDS OF 55 KT TUE 00Z-06Z WED...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE 40 KT WINDS AT THE SFC OVERNIGHT TUE/WED. WINDS BEHIND WAVE AXIS WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH MON ACROSS S PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TO 20 KT WITH AREAS TO 25 KT...AND SEAS BUILDING 7-9 FT. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 40W ATTM TO MOVE ACROSS S PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TUE AND MOVE INTO SE CARIB WED NIGHT...AND IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD AEJ THAT WILL RIDE NW BEHIND WAVE AND ACROSS NE CARIB. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS 1027 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N38W WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD ALONG 29N/30N TO THE NE COAST OF FLORIDA. THE TAIL OF WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSING 30N ALONG ABOUT 60W PROVIDES THE ONLY INTERRUPTION IN THE RIDGE. THIS IS PRODUCING GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS AREA WITH MODERATE ELY TRADES S OF 22N E OF 77W PER RECENT ASCAT PASSES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE TONIGHT WITH CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE BUILDING MODESTLY ALONG 28-29N AND TO NE FLORIDA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TROPICAL WAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NW AND ACROSS NE CARIB AND INTO THE FAR SE WATERS MON NIGHT AND TUE AND INTERACT WITH PREVAILING UPPER LOW ACROSS THAT AREA FOR PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER AND POTENTIAL FOR SQUALLS. GFS INDICATING DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF TRADES ALONG N COASTS OF GREATER ANTILLES STARTING MON NIGHT/TUE WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING 8 FT NW WATERS OF HISPANIOLA EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHILE FRESH ESE TRADES GRADUALLY SPREAD WWD AND TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY THU. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. .AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER COBB. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.