000 AGXX40 KNHC 210817 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 417 AM EDT SUN JUN 21 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS A 1020 MB HIGH PERSISTS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N86.5W THIS MORNING YIELDING LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS E OF 90W AND MODERATE E TO SE WINDS W OF 90W. RECENT RAPIDSCAT PASS SUGGESTED NE WINDS TO 20 KT OFFSHORE OF NW COAST OF YUCATAN ASSOCIATED WITH EVENING THERMAL TROUGH SHIFTING W OF THE PENINSULA...WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY 4-6 FT. OTHERWISE...SEAS 3-4 FT W OF 90W AND 3 FT OR LESS E OF 90W. THIS PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGH TUE BEFORE HIGH COLLAPSES AND WEAK RIDGE AXIS DRIFTS SLIGHTLY N ACROSS THE NE GULF COASTAL WATERS AS ATLC RIDGE EXTENDS VERY WEAKLY ACROSS FLORIDA AND CONNECTS WITH NE GULF. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER LOW TO SPIN ACROSS YUCATAN THROUGH TUE BEFORE BEGINNING TO SHIFT NW WED AND INDUCE INSTABILITY CENTRAL PORTIONS. STRONG TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING LESSER ANTILLES ATTM IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG AEJ THAT WILL MOVE INTO YUCATAN WED WITH ACTIVE WEATHER LIKELY TO SHIFT W AND NW OFF OF THE YUCATAN WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ACROSS SW PORTIONS WED NIGHT AND EARLY THU. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: GFS-ECMWF CONSENSUS 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SW N ATLC NEAR 30N71.5W...WHILE MODERATE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS REMAINDER OF SUBTROPICAL ATLC...SEPARATED WITH TAIL OF WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSING 30N ALONG ABOUT 63W. ALTHOUGH WRN MOST HIGH IS WEAK...IT IS DUE N OF CENTRAL CARIB AND PRODUCING SUFFICIENT PRES GRADIENT FOR STRONG TRADES 69W-79W AND NOCTURNAL GALES OFFSHORE OF COLOMBIA. A RECENT ASCAT PASS DEPICTED MINIMAL GALES IN GULF OF VENEZUELA NEAR 0228Z...AND GFS CONTINUES TO FORECAST BRIEF GALES THERE AROUND 00Z MOST NIGHTS DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BUOY 42058 HAS BEEN FLUCTUATING 9-11 FT PAST 12 HOURS AND CURRENTLY 10 FT...WITH WW3 PROBABLY DOING REASONABLE JOB WITH WAVE FIELD ACROSS SW AND S CENTRAL CARIB. MEANWHILE...STRONG EARLY SEASON TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 57-58W IS ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG AEJ AS MENTIONED ABOVE. THIS FEATURE SOMEWHAT COMPLEX AS MODELS INDICATING H85 VORT LOBE TRAILING OFF THE E OF WAVE AND CONFUSING OUR ANALYSIS. H7 AXIS WILL MOVE QUICKLY WWD ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND ACROSS ERN CARIB MON THEN REACH ALONG ABOUT 77W EARLY TUE NIGHT. WAVE MOISTURE AND ENERGY EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH UPPER LOW DOMINATING NE CARIB REGION...WHICH HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DRIFT WWD. A FAVORABLE INTERACTION SHOULD YIELD SCATTERED SQUALLS AND TSTMS ACROSS LEEWARDS AND ADJACENT ATLC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING THEN SHIFT NW INTO VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MON NIGHT. BEST MOISTURE DOES NOT LOOK TO MAKE IT TO PUERTO RICO BY MAX DIURNAL HEATING TIME ON MON AND THUS MOST OF CNVTN THERE MAY OCCUR DURING MON NIGHT...BUT TRAILING MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE TUE AND UPPER LOW DYNAMICS SUFFICIENT FOR BENEFICIAL RAINS. GFS AND ECMWF HINTING AT POTENTIAL FOR WAVE TO SPLIT ACROSS NE CARIB WITH GOOD PORTION SHIFTING NW AND MISSING PR AREA AND MOVING INTO ATLC. WINDS ACROSS CENTRAL CARIB TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY MON NIGHT AND NOT EXPECTED TO REACH GALE...BUT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY BEHIND WAVE PASSAGE TUE NIGHT THROUGH REMAINDER OF WEEK TO SIGNIFICANTLY PUMP UP SEAS ACROSS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SW PORTIONS...AND BRING A RETURN TO NOCTURNAL GALES OFF OF COLOMBIA EACH NIGHT. WINDS BEHIND WAVE AXIS WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH MON ACROSS S PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TO 20 KT WITH AREAS TO 25 KT...AND SEAS BUILDING 7-9 FT. NEXT TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 40W ATTM TO MOVE ACROSS S PORTIONS OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TUE AND MOVE INTO SE CARIB WED NIGHT...AND IS ALSO ACCOMPANIED BY GOOD AEJ THAT WILL RIDE NW BEHIND WAVE AND ACROSS NE CARIB. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS 1020 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N71.5W...WHILE MODERATE RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS REMAINDER OF SUBTROPICAL ATLC...SEPARATED WITH TAIL OF WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH CROSSING 30N ALONG ABOUT 63W. THIS IS PRODUCING GENERALLY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS AREA WITH FRESH ELY TRADES S OF 23N E OF 77W PER RECENT SCAT PASSES. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO COLLAPSE TONIGHT WITH CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE BUILDING MODESTLY ALONG 28-29N AND TO NE FLORIDA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...TROPICAL WAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE EXPECTED TO SHIFT NW AND ACROSS NE CARIB AND INTO SE WATERS MON NIGHT AND TUE AND INTERACT WITH PREVAILING UPPER LOW ACROSS THAT AREA FOR PERIODS OF ACTIVE WEATHER AND POTENTIAL FOR SQUALLS. GFS INDICATING DIURNAL ENHANCEMENT OF TRADES ALONG N COASTS OF GREATER ANTILLES STARTING TUE WITH SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING8 FT NW WATERS OF HISPANIOLA EACH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING... WHILE FRESH ESE TRADES GRADUALLY SPREAD WWD AND TO STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY WED NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... .AMZ031...CARIBBEAN FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W INCLUDING COLOMBIA BASIN... GALE WARNING EARLY TODAY. GALE WARNING TONIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT INTO THU NIGHT. .AMZ033...CARIBBEAN S OF 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W INCLUDING VENEZUELA BASIN... GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WED NIGHT. GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THU NIGHT. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER STRIPLING. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.