000 AGXX40 KNHC 111854 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 254 PM EDT THU JUN 11 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS BLENDED 12Z MWW3 WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE...EXCEPT MEDIUM CONFIDENCE AFTER FRI NIGHT. SE WINDS ARE CONTINUING TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR S CENTRAL GULF S OF 22N...AND INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC RIDGING THAT STRETCHES WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF...AND NEWLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM CARLOS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY RACING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY BETWEEN 85W AND 89W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A RATHER WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE N/CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N90W. DIFFLUENCE OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW ALONG WITH THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE LOW SE FLOW IS PRODUCING RAPIDLY INCREASING SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY N OF 25N BETWEEN 86W AND 89W. THE LONG FETCH OF THE SE INCREASING WINDS PRESENT EXTENDING FORM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE S CENTRAL GULF HAS BUILD THE SEAS TO 7 FT NEAR THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 FT TONIGHT...AND EXPAND NORTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL AND N CENTRAL GULF BY EARLY FRI IN THE HIGHER RANGE OF 8-11 FT. WINDS DIMINISH SLIGHTLY SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MOST OF SUN AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS WHEN A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THE RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD AGAIN SUN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE STRENGTHENING SOME AND LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. GLOBAL MODELS...TO SOME EXTENT...ARE HINTING AT LOW PRES THAT FORMS ALONG ...OR JUST OVER THE COAST OF MEXICO ADJACENT TO THE SW GULF POSSIBLY AS A RESULT FROM A SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH THAT DIGS IN OVER THE NW GULF FROM OFF TEXAS. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE GRADIENT OF SE 20-25 KT WINDS PULSING OVER THE WESTERN GULF SAT THROUGH SUN...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE WILL BE MEDIUM AFTER FRI NIGHT WITH THIS POSSIBLE SCENARIO. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS BLENDED 12Z MWW3 ALONG WITH A SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE ECMWF INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 1506 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF NE TO E 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. THE ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOWED A SWATH OF SUSTAINED SE 25 KT WINDS FROM 16N TO 20N W OF 85W DUE TO A STRONG PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN ATLC RIDGE N OF THE BASIN BUILDING WESTWARD...AND NEWLY UPGRADED TROPICAL STORM CARLOS OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. THE WINDSAT PASS FROM 115O UTC THIS MORNING ALSO REVEALED SOLID SE 25 KT WINDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 10 FT JUST N OF THE GULF OF HONDURAS. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE S OF 13N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. THE WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL DIMINISH SAT AS THE ATLC RIDGE WEAKENS...BUT THE RIDGE WILL BUILD AGAIN BY LATE SAT INTO SUN ALLOWING THE AREA OF STRONG TRADE WINDS TO EXPAND NORTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE ENTIRE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH STRONG WINDS PULSING MOSTLY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...WINDS WILL BE GOVERNED IN PART BY THE PASSAGE OF TROPICAL WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. AS OF 18Z...THE FIRST WAVE HAS ENTERED THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AND IS ANALYZED ALONG 66W S OF 14N THIS WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EARLY FRI...AND SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN SAT AND INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA SUN AND MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 54W S OF 12N ALSO AS OF 18Z WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATE FRI NIGHT...ACROSS THE THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SAT THROUGH EARLY SUN...ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DURING REST OF SUN AND SUN NIGHT...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN MON AND INLAND TUE. A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS 55W LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN LATE SUN NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON. GENERALLY FRESH WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVES...EXCEPT FOR THE THIRD TROPICAL WAVE WHERE SLIGHTLY STRONGER E WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS CENTRAL ATLC RIDGING BEHIND IT INTENSIFIES. SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO AROUND 9 OF 10 FT BEHIND THIS WAVE AND TO AROUND 8 FT BEHIND THE FIRST TWO. FRESH SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS 12Z GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS BLENDED 12Z MWW3 ALONG WITH SMALL PERCENTAGE OF THE ECMWF INTO PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE 18Z PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING 27N65W SW TO 26N67W. A 1025 MB HIGH IS WELL E OF THE E OF THE AREA NEAR 28N47W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. BOTH ASCAT DATA AND BUOY REPORTS SHOW GENERALLY GENTLE E TO SE WINDS THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR A MODERATE E WINDS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA. SEA STATE IS RELATIVELY LOW WITH RANGES IN THE 3-4 FT E AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL POCKET OF 5-6 FT SEAS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA AND LOWER SEAS OF 1-2 FT SW OF THE BAHAMAS. THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS ONES AS LITTLE CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE BASIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODERATE E WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH EARLY SAT...AND MAY BRIEFLY COME BACK UP LATE SUN AND AGAIN LATE ON MON. THE ONLY UNCERTAIN FACTOR WILL BE WITH RESPECT TO A WHAT APPEARS WILL BE EITHER A WEAK COLD FRONT OR TROUGH THAT APPOACHES THE FAR NW PORTION EARLY NEXT WEEK. RIGHT NOW ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BE RATHER WEAK...AND WILL LITTLE IF ANY IMPACTS ON WINDS AND SEAS. IT MAY BRING SOME ENHANCEMET TO SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY TO THE FAR NW WATERS NEAR THE COAST. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER AGUIRRE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.