000 AGXX40 KNHC 070759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 359 AM EDT SUN JUN 7 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TUE THEN MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF WATERS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF 1015 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 28N92W. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 3 FT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE NEAR AND TO THE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS WILL PULSE EACH EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS INDUCE BY A THERMAL TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN THE MORNING WHILE DISSIPATING. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MODEST WINDS AND SEAS OVERALL. BY MID WEEK...THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE S CENTRAL AND SW GULF AS ATLC HIGH PRES BUILDS WESTWARD. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SE WINDS INTO THE S CENTRAL GULF LATE WED THROUGH THU WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 9 FT FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE CENTRAL GULF. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM FLORIDA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS IS SUPPORTING A PERSISTENT SURFACE TROUGH FROM WESTERN CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS. CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO BE ACTIVE EAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH...CURRENTLY BETWEEN GRAND CAYMAN...CUBA AND JAMAICA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DAMPEN OUT THROUGH MON...ALLOWING THE SURFACE TROUGH TO BECOME DIFFUSE AND OVERTAKEN BY THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MEANWHILE A BUILDING ATLC RIDGE N OF THE BASIN IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN VENEZUELA AND THE ABC ISLANDS. THE RIDGE WILL BUILD FARTHER WEST IN THE WAKE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE...ALLOWING THE AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG WINDS TO EXPAND FROM THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY MID WEEK. AN ADDITIONAL FACTOR WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF SOUTHERN MEXICO SOUTH OF TEHUANTEPEC...TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT FURTHER. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR 25 TO 30 KT SE FLOW FROM THE HONDURAN COAST THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY LATE WED WITH SEAS BUILDING 8 TO 11 FT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN. FOR THE TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...A RECENT ASCAT SATELLITE PASS INDICATED FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS S OF 12N AND AN ALTIMETER SATELLITE PASS FROM THE SAME TIME FRAME IN THAT AREA INDICATED SEAS TO 8 FT...SLIGHTLY ABOVE MODEL INITIALIZATIONS. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: FOR WINDS GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. MEDIUM-HIGH CONFIDENCE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N69W TO LOW PRES 26N75W 1013 MB THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER FLORIDA AND THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS COMBINATION WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ACTIVE WEATHER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. MAINLY GENTLE WINDS ARE NOTED PER BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND SCATTEROMETER DATA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS TROUGH WITH SEAS OF 3-4 FT. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH TUE WHILE THE SOUTHERN PART WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL BUILD SW INTO THE SE BAHAMAS SAT NIGHT AND THEN FURTHER WESTWARD INTO S FLORIDA TUE AND WED. THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WILL ALSO AFFECT THE SOUTH WATERS DURING THIS WEEKEND BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE WINDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH SEAS OF 5-6 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. IN ADDITION...THE MODERATE E-SE WINDS BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOONS...AND PULSE BACK UP AT NIGHT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.