000 AGXX40 KNHC 210728 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 328 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W...AND THE SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS. ...GULF OF MEXICO... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A WEAK HIGH PRES OF 1017 MB LOCATED IN THE NE GULF DOMINATES THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE N-CENTRAL AND NE GULF THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER RIDGE MOVING OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST ON FRI. AS THE NEW RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA...GENTLE TO MODERATE NE-E WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WITH MAINLY MODERATE E-SE WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. ALSO...FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE EACH EVENING THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR AND TO THE NW OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS INDUCE BY A THERMAL TROUGH. THESE E-SE PULSES OF 20-25 KT WILL PROPAGATE WNW ACROSS THE SW GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF AN INVERTED TROUGH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE TROUGH LOSING IDENTITY AND WINDS DIMINISHED TO 15-20 KT BY THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS EACH DAY. SEAS WILL BRIEFLY BUILD TO 5-7 FT ACROSS THE SW GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE WINDS. OTHERWISE...SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY UNDER 6 FT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AND UNDER 4 FT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A 1030 MB HIGH OVER THE MIDDLE ATLC STATES AND LOWER PRES OVER TEXAS AND NE MEXICO WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BY SAT NIGHT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG E-SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE GULF WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS THE NW PART BY SUN. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO ALSO PERSIST ON MON. ...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE N OF AREA AND THE COLOMBIAN LOW PRES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PULSING OF FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA MAINLY BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC...WITH SEAS OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 8 FT WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS. OTHERWISE...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA S OF 17N WHILE MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED N OF 17N. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH SUN NIGHT. IN ADDITION...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A STRONGER HIGH PRES MOVES ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLC STATES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TRADE WINDS OF 25-30 KT AND SEAS OF 10-11 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY EARLY SUN MORNING WITH SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSISTING ON MON. ...SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... MODEL PREFERENCE: LATEST GFS BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. FOR WAVE PARAMETERS LATEST MWW3 BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES LOCATED NEAR 27N70W DOMINATES THE FORECAST WATERS PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT TO GENTLE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION WITH SEAS OF 2-4 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS BASED ON BUOY OBSERVATIONS. AN EXCEPTION IS ACROSS THE WATERS NEAR HISPANIOLA AND W OF 70W WHERE THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS VERIFIED THE EXISTENCE OF MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY WINDS. THE HIGH PRES WILL DRIFT SE AND MERGE WITH THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE FORECAST TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC LATER TODAY. CURRENTLY... MODERATE SW WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA ACROSS THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO FRI. THEN...THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE N WATERS REACHING A POSITION FROM 31N70W TO THE NW BAHAMAS BY FRI NIGHT WITH MAINLY MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS AND SEAS OF 4-5 FT BEHIND IT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ACROSS THE N WATERS ON SUN WITH THE HIGH PRES BEHIND IT TAKING CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE REGION. MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUN AND MON WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 4-6 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH SEAS OF 6-7 FT ACROSS THE SOUTH WATERS MAINLY S OF 22N W OF 70W...INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ON SUN NIGHT...AND THEN AGAIN ON MON NIGHT. $$ .WARNINGS...ANY CHANGES IMPACTING COASTAL NWS OFFICES WILL BE COORDINATED THROUGH AWIPS 12 PLANET CHAT OR BY TELEPHONE: .GULF OF MEXICO... NONE. .CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLANTIC FROM 07N TO 19N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W... NONE. .SW N ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS... NONE. $$ *FOR DETAILED ZONE DESCRIPTIONS PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/ABOUTTAFBPROD.SHTML#OWF NOTE: GRIDDED MARINE FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE IN THE NATIONAL DIGITAL FORECAST DATABASE (NDFD) AT: HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV/MARINE/GRIDS.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT: HTTP://WWW.HURRICANE WARNINGS.GOV/MARINE $$ .FORECASTER GR. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.